Huh? No they haven't. Especially since Japan was still crashing in the early 90s, it was hardly an established precedent by then.
> That's because money is electronically printed by the government and given to banks in exchange for bad loans on a regular basis.
Japan did the same thing, it led to zombie companies and a lost decade.
> There is no debt default crisis. The banks just keep lending and no government debt is created like it would be in America if the government wanted to do the same thing.
You see how this can't work forever, right? Also, if SOE's are publicly owned and their loans are implicitly guaranteed by the government, how is that not considered government debt?
> Thus they keep predicting an imminent economic collapse every years even though they've been wrong for more than 25 years.
It hasn't been 25 years, and whatever, China has crashed a few times since the early 90s. I remember seeing half completed buildings in Tianjin in 1999 just standing out as husks.
I know, I know, you think "its different this time" or "its different for china", but its all BS in the end, because it never is.
It should be interesting to see how it develops when the economic eventually slows down and China is no longer the cheap manufacturing park of the world.
25y is nothing. Japan went like that for 40y, from the end of WW2 to laye 80s. Until it stopped and never recovered since. Fortunately they stopped at a high income level.
A more interesting history is that of Argentina. It was an export powerhouse that went from being a poor Spanish colony in early 1800s to having a per capita income as high as Germany or France in 1920s. After the crash all went downhill and income levels are back to mid levels.
In a way China is subsidizing goods for the most of the world. The outcome is the kind of political problems this is causing in most countries.
Checkout Chinese provinces lying about inflating 25-30% of revenue, overstating their constant 7% gdp growth, debt ratio of over 300%, massive capital outflow, their own economists warning of a crash, and many others To see just how bad their crash will be
That this whole system has worked so well for 30 years completely undermines the entire basis of western macroeconomics and is the equivalent of telling a traditionally trained economist that the earth orbits the sun while they believed the opposite. It just does not compute and they can't even wrap their heads around it. Thus they keep predicting an imminent economic collapse every years even though they've been wrong for more than 25 years.