You’re both assuming this year is a stable point or low point for valuations for people under 40. I don’t see it. There are clear high values on stocks across the board. There are international pressures just coming into play that will have large, probably negative effects.

Definitely agree there, although 15+ years is enough to time for us to get through the cycle of highs and lows.

Also market timing is hard and subject to many factors (such as those you pointed out) that one doesn't have knowledge and awareness of. It's better to just buy, and hold. When the market goes down, buy some more, but don't expect to access that money for many years.

> if you want to get fancy is to shift some bond holdings to riskier or junk bond funds

Don't worry. The federal government is working on doing that for you.

If you're referring to US federal government debt, it's basically got a zero risk of default. You'll always get your principal and interest back in full. Why? The debt is denominated in USD and who can print any amount of USD at will? The Fed.

Edit: I think I get your larger point though, runaway deficit spending of the kind we've had in recent years does destabilize the riskiness of holding US assets / currency.

It has a very non-zero inflation risk, though.

It was just a throwaway line. I should have said municipal, but given the target audience and all. I'm not even a deficit hawk, but i thought it was funny :)