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Re:Ask HN: How do Tumblr & Posterous make money? by nl on Wednesday August 25, 2010 @10:15PM (#1634858)
It's not pie-in-the-sky.

Anyone should be able to make between $4 & $5 per 1000 visitors from just running AdSense.

Use that as a baseline and do the math from there. If you can add-on non-advertising forms of revenue then that is a bonus.

Re:Ask HN: How do Tumblr & Posterous make money? by rphlx on Wednesday August 25, 2010 @11:21PM (#1634962)
Maybe $4 per year. GOOG keeps reducing AdSense payments to help provide quarter-over-quarter income growth.
Re:Ask HN: How do Tumblr & Posterous make money? by nl on Thursday August 26, 2010 @12:13AM (#1635048)
Got math?

It's going to depend on your field of course, but it's pretty easy to get between 0.5 & 1% clickthough and 10c per clicks. That's between 50c & $1 per 1000 pageviews, and I said $5 per 1000 visitors (ie, uniques). If you double the CTR (quite doable with optimization) and get 2 pageviews per visitor then that's $4/visitor already...

If you prefer, look at it like this. The lowest Adsense eCPM I've seen over any medium period by anyone I know is $0.70.

Posterous is doing around 1.5 million pageviews per day (http://www.quantcast.com/search.jsp?domain=posterous.com) and Tumblr is doing over 60 million.

Getting revenue with that much traffic wouldn't be too hard.

Re:Ask HN: How do Tumblr & Posterous make money? by rphlx on Friday August 27, 2010 @01:06AM (#1638056)
I was being snarky, but, AdSense payouts are trending endlessly downward as far as I can tell, and that scares investors. At least it should.
Re:Ask HN: How do Tumblr & Posterous make money? by retube on Friday August 27, 2010 @08:31AM (#1638597)
OK sure. but how do you estimate your visitor/traffic growth?
Re:Ask HN: How do Tumblr & Posterous make money? by nl on Friday August 27, 2010 @09:02AM (#1638673)
Both sites have release traffic numbers in the past.