the piece here reminds me of an article about entrepreneurship and overconfidence. (see http://icf.som.yale.edu/pdf/overconfidence.pdf, i think). the paper writes that the most common trait among entrepreneurs is overconfidence under a kind of evolutionary understanding. paul graham writes similarly but from a different perspective when he writes about the power of the marginal (eponymous article, i think). outsiders have the naivate to understand why something novel will work, where as insiders are well-versed in the rationalizations for the status quo. i think it's the same naivate that gives outsiders that overconfidence to pursue ventures that insiders "know" will fail.