Re:What I found When I analysis million followers of Preside...
by Jeff_Brown on Monday February 05, 2018 @11:16AM
(#16309704)
"complete miss"? They put his probability of winning somewhere between a quarter and a half -- rather uniquely, among a field of predictors who on average put his probability of winning under 10%.
It sounds like because he won, you believe they should have given him a probability greater than 1/2. That represents a misunderstanding of what probability means.
Re:What I found When I analysis million followers of Preside...
by thousandautumns on Monday February 05, 2018 @01:20PM
(#16310732)
The only people who think Five Thirty Eight had a complete miss in predicting a Trump victory are those who do not have an understanding of probability, statistics, or predictive models.
Re:What I found When I analysis million followers of Preside...
by collyw on Monday February 05, 2018 @10:17AM
(#16309239)
Agreed charts are supposed to make understanding the data easier. This may do the opposite.
Re:What I found When I analysis million followers of Preside...
by plantpark on Monday February 05, 2018 @12:04PM
(#16310148)
I thought Pie chart will make the percentage more clearly. Do you have any suggestions for the chart? Thanks!
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/poli...