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A comment on Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin. Parent comment

Re:Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin by matthewbauer on Tuesday January 23, 2018 @01:03PM (#16215673)
Interesting thoughts but I think "the sum of transaction fees people will spend in the future" is better as a value for mining (after rewards go to 0). "Holders" really aren't wanting anything to do with transactions.

My Bitcoin valuation:

Bitcoin is worth as much as it costs to move to another blockchain.

That's the "first-mover advantage" basically and I'm afraid it's much closer to $200 million than $200 billion.

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Re:Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin by Changu on Tuesday January 23, 2018 @01:20PM (#16215869)
That seems to imply that the BTC market cap is the result of speculation. Of people holding BTC because they think some greater fool will buy them later.

Personally I believe in efficient markets. I think the $200B is the best guess the market came up for the intrinsic value of BTC. Independent of speculation.

My feeling is similar to yours though. That BTCs value is closer to $200m then to $200B.

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