Re:Unskilled and Unaware of It (1999) [pdf]
by dahart on Thursday January 11, 2018 @06:46PM
(#16129169)
While it is possible, this paper doesn't really make it more likely. Do read the paper if you're worried about it, because it doesn't prove what it claims to.
This paper is only valid for what it actually studied: some subjective tasks and some standardized test questions. Ability to get the humor in a joke was one of the 4 tasks. Subsequent papers have shown that this result doesn't apply to highly skilled or complex cognitive tasks like computer programming. In fact, the effect reverses, and highly skilled people are disproportionately better at knowing their competence. https://www.talyarkoni.org/blog/2010/07/07/what-the-dunning-...
This paper also didn't control for a possibly over-confident sample: the subject of the study were all Cornell undergrads, who may be prone to being overconfident, or just acting overconfident.
That said, as a programmer, it's always a good idea to be confident about your willingness and attitude while being humble about your skills. Assume your programs have bugs, because they do. I believe the reason my competence is increasing is because I assume all code is wrong, and I take extra time to make sure it does what I expect.
This paper is only valid for what it actually studied: some subjective tasks and some standardized test questions. Ability to get the humor in a joke was one of the 4 tasks. Subsequent papers have shown that this result doesn't apply to highly skilled or complex cognitive tasks like computer programming. In fact, the effect reverses, and highly skilled people are disproportionately better at knowing their competence. https://www.talyarkoni.org/blog/2010/07/07/what-the-dunning-...
This paper also didn't control for a possibly over-confident sample: the subject of the study were all Cornell undergrads, who may be prone to being overconfident, or just acting overconfident.
That said, as a programmer, it's always a good idea to be confident about your willingness and attitude while being humble about your skills. Assume your programs have bugs, because they do. I believe the reason my competence is increasing is because I assume all code is wrong, and I take extra time to make sure it does what I expect.