Re:Suburbs That Haven't Recovered from the Recession
by Retric on Wednesday January 10, 2018 @03:39PM
(#16118833)
We have zero production self driving cars today or in the next 3 years and will not be on 90% of new cars for at least a decade after they show up. Hyundai for example is targeting 2030 for urban driving as an option.
Cars last for ~25 years in normal use (average car in US is 11.5 years old and accidents take many out before reaching their lifespan). So, at a minimum we are talking 50 years before essentially every car is even capable of being self driven. Laws are unlikely to change before self driving goes from a novelty to assumed behavior call it another 25 years at a minimum. Now, add a few more years for phasing in the law, and then a few more for statistics to validate reducing safty equipment.
So, 100+ seems fairly optimistic as that's the happy path assuming zero major issues show up.
Cars last for ~25 years in normal use (average car in US is 11.5 years old and accidents take many out before reaching their lifespan). So, at a minimum we are talking 50 years before essentially every car is even capable of being self driven. Laws are unlikely to change before self driving goes from a novelty to assumed behavior call it another 25 years at a minimum. Now, add a few more years for phasing in the law, and then a few more for statistics to validate reducing safty equipment.
So, 100+ seems fairly optimistic as that's the happy path assuming zero major issues show up.