Re:Observable Universe contains 10x more galaxies than previ...
by mabbo on Thursday January 04, 2018 @01:17PM
(#16072611)
> can we even consider the possibility that this is the only planet with life?
Yes, we can. I don't personally think life is all that rare in the universe- we agree there. But I think it's perfectly fair that it's possible we're alone.
It's really a question of how many unlikely events lead to us existing and how improbable those events are. People always start with "Let's imagine only 0.1% of planets have conditions for life! How rare that must be!". But is 0.1% a fair estimate? What if the true number is 1E-20? Or 1E-40? 0.1% is easy for humans to understand and think about so we always start there. Then apply the same reasoning to the jump from single-cell life to multi-cell life, to the odds of become larger animals, the odds of becoming intelligent.
We don't know what the odds are, so we always use odds that sound low but are actually quite large.
Just like humans are biased towards not seeing how big the universe is, you (like everyone else) are biased towards using probabilities in the realm of human understanding. That is just as wrong.
The question isn't how big the universe is, it's the comparison of how-big to how-unlikely.
Yes, we can. I don't personally think life is all that rare in the universe- we agree there. But I think it's perfectly fair that it's possible we're alone.
It's really a question of how many unlikely events lead to us existing and how improbable those events are. People always start with "Let's imagine only 0.1% of planets have conditions for life! How rare that must be!". But is 0.1% a fair estimate? What if the true number is 1E-20? Or 1E-40? 0.1% is easy for humans to understand and think about so we always start there. Then apply the same reasoning to the jump from single-cell life to multi-cell life, to the odds of become larger animals, the odds of becoming intelligent.
We don't know what the odds are, so we always use odds that sound low but are actually quite large.
Just like humans are biased towards not seeing how big the universe is, you (like everyone else) are biased towards using probabilities in the realm of human understanding. That is just as wrong.
The question isn't how big the universe is, it's the comparison of how-big to how-unlikely.