http://www.spacex.com/news/2013/09/24/production-spacex http://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/hybrid-electric/g877/ta...
The production rate is clearly changing from week to week, month to month (increasing at a decent clip on a percentage basis). As long as that is happening, they're still in the ramp-up phase.
And it also assumes that skill in the (relatively) low volume production of rockets can be transferred to mass production of cars.
If Model 3 is not a success money runs out. There will be large changes in the ownership. Musk might sell Tesla to some other manufacturer etc.
The Semi is a huge market.
And even if Model 3 didn’t exist and Tesla pushed itself as developing Model S as the number one car for self driving mobility services, they’d still have a claim at the lions share of the automotive market. Vehicle cost is a much smaller concern in the post-self-driving world.
Let’s imagine Model 3 only pulls Model S numbers, and their annual production only goes to 200k by 2020. I don’t think that’s enough to see a total collapse of the stock the way you seem to be suggesting.
I think Elon has many more cards in play than you let on.
I have yet to see any financial analysis based on Tesla financial that don't see Model 3 as a critical.
Not sure if Musk will be actually making any decisions here when things go south.
SpaceX launched 18 last year, all successfully, more than any other rocket. All recovery attempts succeeded, and several rockets were reflown. Their competitors have had to cut their workforce and are now feverishly trying to catch up with new designs (most of which are inadequate for even the current Falcon 9, let alone future rockets). The line between laughing stock and huge success is pretty small if you're in the exponential ramp-up phase.