The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers

Re:The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers by smsm42 on Friday December 29, 2017 @11:53PM (#16033905)

1. Tesla Roadster is a luxury car. It is literally order of magnitude more expensive than a common middle-class car. There's no possibility it can ever be considered as a replacement for common cars. As a toy for rich people with money to burn - sure, why not. But if we're talking about people not spending 200-250K on a car - which is vast majority of drivers - there's no point in considering such cars.

2. Again, Tesla is a luxury car, so describing it when talking about replacing common cars is pointless. Even the cheapest one is sitting on very top of what common middle-class car could cost, and it's not even released. If you want to replace common cars, you can't have cheapest model to cost $35K. There's literally no possibility most people would be able to afford that.

3. Charging from 110V would require whole night and even more. My house has one (1) dryer socket, which surprisingly is occupied by the dryer. Which leads one to think to have such car one has to undertake a costly (min. hourly rate in CA is about $100) project requiring a contractor, licensed electrician, permits, etc. And if one lives in an apartment which doesn't have built-in charging station - no chance.

4. Great to hear it, but again that was Tesla, as I understand. Can I expect the same from a car that doesn't cost six figures? I don't know. And the fact that it's simpler doesn't help much if the mechanic doesn't know it. Well, maybe it'll break down less, but we need to find out if that's still true for cheap models used in mass-driving conditions.

5. That's exactly my point - there's no developed market, so very little can be said about how it would look like. Sure, luxuries are always valued by people who are into luxuries and have money to spend. But about non-luxury market, that's different.

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Re:The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers by jblow on Saturday December 30, 2017 @03:00PM (#16037166)

1. Sure, Tesla's whole plan, since the foundation of the company, was to start out making expensive cars and then to continually make them cheaper until they are completely mass-market. They have consistently followed this plan. So I don't see why you think they'd suddenly stop?

2. See 1.

3. Actually charging from 110v would take more than overnight -- several days at least if you are empty! It's very slow (it's a lot slower than half a 220v because a certain amount of power goes to overhead like cooling the batteries during charging). Even so, I got by on 110v for years. As for having (1) dryer socket ... buy a splitter cord for 5 bucks? I am not sure why you think you need a contractor and permits, unless you are just trying to fabricate reasons why electric cars are a problem.

4. See 1.

5. The market today is tremendously more developed than it was in 2008 when Tesla started selling their first car, and everyone thought electric cars were just golf carts that were completely infeasible. Why do you think this trend would stop now? On the luxury point ... see 1.

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Re:The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers by smsm42 on Saturday December 30, 2017 @03:30PM (#16037373)

1. Surely, and if they ever have a $15K model, or even $20K model, my estimate about how soon the transition would happen would change. As of now, I think the pricing points are such that only rich (and rich by SV standards, which are significantly higher then the rest of the country) people can afford it. So the transition has no way of happening. I am not saying it will never happen - I am saying it's not nearly close now.

3. I am speaking from experience of what doing non-trivial stuff takes. E.g., installing AC requires permits. Maybe installing proper (not "more than overnight") charger does not, if it's just using a splitter cord then it's good news.

5. I do not think it will stop now. I think it's still far from where we could see mass transition from ICE to electrical cars. In 10 years? Sure, why not. Right now? Don't see it.

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Re:The Near Future of Electric Cars: Many Models, Few Buyers by acomjean on Saturday December 30, 2017 @09:42AM (#16035410)

There are a lot of electrics that aren't luxury cars and have range in 100-200 mile range. Most gas cars I've seen have a 300 mile range befor refueling..

The thing about an electric if you park at home the tank is always full in the morning. No more stopping for gas in the daily commute. Long road trips are a different story.

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