Which will be good 4 out of 5 times.

This is using all available 50 years "stretches" since 1871.

If you try limiting the "since" to 1960 the success rate goes to 25%.

Still since 1960, 40 years are 44%, 30 years are roughly on par at 79%.

And while sticking at the shorter 30 years, if you start from 1970 the percentage of success increases at 94.4%, if you start from 1980 you finally get 100%.

If you start from 1970 with 40 years period, you are at 75%, more or less the same.

Now what happens if - still starting from 1970 - you increase the period?

41 - 71.4%

42 - 66.7%

43 - 40.0%

44 - 25.0%

45 - 33.3%

46 - 50.0%

47 - 0.00%

And the troubling issue with the last one is that in the two cycles available you hit 0 US$ respectively after 25 and 40 years.

Not to put anyone down, but even the 3% is not that much safe when you go over such lengthy stretches, still as an example drawing 22,500 US$ out of the 750,000 portfolio, which gives a 100% rate of success limiting since 1960 gives 8 cycles, of which one is not a problem as it ends ove 20 millons, but the other 7 (or 87.50%) are IMHO too close to 0 to be reassuring.