Re:Elon Musk’s Ideas About Transportation are Boring
by eesmith on Saturday December 16, 2017 @01:03PM
(#15940739)
"the extent to which driverless, electric, shared vehicles will change this equation"
Yes, I think it's agreed that such a system could/will change things dramatically. Let's assume that it is possible. The questions then are 1) when will the transition take place, and 2) how do we improve the current system until it happens?
If it takes 50 years, then it's rather pointless to wait before making big changes, or even to plan for such a transition. (By comparison, the US interstate system is only 60 some-odd years old.)
It's quite clearly not next year.
Nor would it be easy for cities like Miami and Amsterdam to go underground, if tunnels are what's needed to make such a transportation system work.
"A driverless, electric, shared, and tunnel-augmented vehicle ecosystem is probably the perfect mass transit system."
You may be missing a qualifier - perhaps "personal"? - in your description. The word "vehicle" includes buses, trams, and trains, so this summary includes many current subway and tram systems, except without a driver.
P.S. It's hard to predict if something really will cause a big change. I remember in the 1990s when Dean Kamen talked about the Segway as being the next transportation paradigm, "John Doerr speculated that it would be more important than the Internet" and "Steve Jobs was quoted as saying that it was "as big a deal as the PC"" (quotes from Wikipedia). When it came out, it turned out not to be a big change. I think e-bikes - an update of 1800s technology - have had a bigger impact than Segway.
Yes, I think it's agreed that such a system could/will change things dramatically. Let's assume that it is possible. The questions then are 1) when will the transition take place, and 2) how do we improve the current system until it happens?
If it takes 50 years, then it's rather pointless to wait before making big changes, or even to plan for such a transition. (By comparison, the US interstate system is only 60 some-odd years old.)
It's quite clearly not next year.
Nor would it be easy for cities like Miami and Amsterdam to go underground, if tunnels are what's needed to make such a transportation system work.
"A driverless, electric, shared, and tunnel-augmented vehicle ecosystem is probably the perfect mass transit system."
You may be missing a qualifier - perhaps "personal"? - in your description. The word "vehicle" includes buses, trams, and trains, so this summary includes many current subway and tram systems, except without a driver.
P.S. It's hard to predict if something really will cause a big change. I remember in the 1990s when Dean Kamen talked about the Segway as being the next transportation paradigm, "John Doerr speculated that it would be more important than the Internet" and "Steve Jobs was quoted as saying that it was "as big a deal as the PC"" (quotes from Wikipedia). When it came out, it turned out not to be a big change. I think e-bikes - an update of 1800s technology - have had a bigger impact than Segway.