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A comment on Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row is not Surprising [pdf].
As he notes there are trillions of ways to get between 40 and 50 heads. Our surprise isn't in the sequence but the distribution of outcomes?
I would absolutely be "surprised" if someone accurately predicted a coin flip 92 times regardless of the distribution of heads and tails.
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As he notes there are trillions of ways to get between 40 and 50 heads. Our surprise isn't in the sequence but the distribution of outcomes?
I would absolutely be "surprised" if someone accurately predicted a coin flip 92 times regardless of the distribution of heads and tails.