Re:Is Bitcoin a Bubble? Economists Say ‘Yes’
by TheCowboy on Thursday December 14, 2017 @10:11PM
(#15929421)
I don't think any of this explains the jargon in that paragraph from the paper, which is what I questioning. And Nate Silver didn't have a 98:2 forecast.
If I make a bad bet I don't go "bankrupt" or lose that money before the event happens. There's more than one way to structure betting on events than the way he proposes as well, so I still don't understand why his is an authoritative take.
"Given the recent history ... and other factors" is more of an explanation for why someone thought it was a coinflip, but doesn't represent "a proper statistical analysis" modeling 50:50.
If I make a bad bet I don't go "bankrupt" or lose that money before the event happens. There's more than one way to structure betting on events than the way he proposes as well, so I still don't understand why his is an authoritative take.
"Given the recent history ... and other factors" is more of an explanation for why someone thought it was a coinflip, but doesn't represent "a proper statistical analysis" modeling 50:50.