Re:Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row is not Surprising [pdf]
by sonofgod on Thursday December 14, 2017 @11:46AM
(#15923785)
Does the author actually define surprising anywhere other than "George Shackle's definition"?
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Re:Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row is not Surprising [pdf]
by pcmonk on Thursday December 14, 2017 @11:47AM
(#15923803)
Yes, in the last section:
> Roughly speaking, itβs rational to be surprised by an event if and only if that event requires investigation and explanation.
Re:Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row is not Surprising [pdf]
by lokedhs on Thursday December 14, 2017 @08:22PM
(#15928991)
If that happened to you, wouldn't you investigate it and try to explain it?
In practice, if you saw this happen you'd have probably notice that something was off. The coin is probably weighted, or some sleight of hand tricked you.