Or better yet, just assume you're not getting it, because even if you get invited, you statistically still probably aren't going to be accepted. Keep building your application, chasing up contacts, figuring out the next step and planning on taking over the world with or without YC.

A year ago they kept 2 out of 3 invitees IIRC.

Yes, if you make it to the interview, your odds are excellent. In our batch roughly 50% of interviewees made it, and that number increased in subsequent batches. I've suspected that the application phase is where all of the downward pressure comes in--since they get so many, and the interview weekend only has so many slots available for talking to people. The quality of the applicants that make it to the interview has probably gone up remarkably. This time around, pg has enlisted the help of prior founders to get a better feel for applicants (and give the applicants a chance to ask all the questions they have about YC of folks who've experienced it), so it seems likely that those that make it to the interview are even more likely to be accepted.

But you still shouldn't bet on it. That was my point. It wouldn't matter if the odds later on were 90% or 10%, that's still several potentially wasted weeks. Just keep going.

I absolutely agree.

The teams most likely to get in are also the ones most likely to be working on their startup already. If you're not going to be working on your startup with or without YC, I suspect your odds of getting in are significantly lower (and probably moreso as time goes by, given the number of applicants and the number that are already started on their project--at least two that I talked to had applied and interviewed previously but not gotten in...they'd been either working on new ideas since then, or had gone on to launch something, and were back for another swing at YC with new or evolved ideas). I suspect at least one of those teams I talked to will get in this time. Stubbornness, self-confidence, risk-taking, and simple hard work are all things that YC appreciates...and they appreciate them because they're traits that lead to successful startups.

Haha. That's terrible advice! :)

How about just checking your email once every few hours or when you feel like it? That seems to be a less extreme reaction.

Many people who took the application seriously will have been working like crazy the past couple of weeks, and the very serious entrepreneurs have months or years more of it ahead. A "night off" would probably do a lot of good for some of the applicants.

Getting a relatively healthy drink, enjoying some leisure time, and going to sleep at a reasonable hour... I can think of much worse advice. :P