I'm not asking why China would limit it, I'm asking what Google gains from it.

If Google's top talent in China will mostly be poached within the next 10 years, is it really worthwhile to open a research center there? MSRA is a very good example, but at the end of the day, it's still a training ground for Chinese researchers. Paradoxically, the more important it is that Chinese researchers work on at Google China, the more likely that Google is to lose those researchers to government or private competitors.

It's far easier to find ML talent in China than it is in the US. That's what they gain from it.

I made a video that actually analyzes the data behind this. Basically the entry-level of the field is about 50% Chinese and the more experienced levels are about 10-20% Chinese. On the other hand only perhaps 5% of work actually comes from Chinese labs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ljdwwM5kIrw

Not necessarily easier, just cheaper. Google can throw as much money at ML as it wants, but I contend that a top ML researcher is probably worth at least 3-5x more than mediocre one.

Yeah, I've worked with quite a few top ML researchers at US universities and many of them are Chinese nationals. Even here in the US. With China's economy booming the way it is and the overall political climate in the US right now, many see a better quality of life for themselves and their families in China. It's not just about cost.

What are they making? I've not heard of any >$200k/year ML researchers returning to China: usually it's good, but not amazing, researchers that do return.

Not necessarily cheaper: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-24/in-battle...

To be fair, that's like comparing Two Sigma to Google.

check the board of directors and the top management team in Google, can you see any Chinese name in the list? now check the same lists for BATJ, Alipay and Huawei.

with such bamboo ceiling in place, google doesn't stand a chance to complete for the best of the best.

Yes, employees can leave. How is that different from anywhere else? Google gains from whatever they were paid to do while working there.

It seems unlikely that competition for employees will be stronger in China than in Silicon Valley.

Competition for employees at the high end is just as intense in Beijing and the rest of china; there is plenty of junior talent to be tapped however.

On one hand, I have to agree that China's closed/censored society is directly at odds with the product offering of a company like Google ... on the other hand, does one simply disengage from such a massive market as China? Perhaps Google is betting on a future when there is greater freedom for the Chinese people.

I personally think Google's best approach would be to pay hand-over-fist for the best Chinese AI/ML experts to emigrate to the US and do their work here. However, Google seems to be taking the shotgun approach of employing more experts in the short-term while guaranteeing them less job stability in the long-term.

I think you're right in that it really does depend on when China becomes a free society. Personally, from what/who I know from China, I don't see this happening within the next decade. I expect political instability within China to reach a tipping point, after which we'll either see a very slow global liberalization or a definitive move towards a more totalitarian Chinese government with a modern twist.

Honestly I don't know why Google has any faith in the good will of the future Chinese government. As has been established for a very long time, China needs foreign expertise more than any foreign company needs a labor or consumer market within China.

What makes you say that China's closed/censored society is directly at odds with Google's products?

I think Google just wants to recruit AI talents from China and uses research from the AI center in China in markets it is not banned.

If so, they don't need to interact with the government that much like when they offered a search service to Chinese netizens.

I can think some companies that just do this. Hulu has an office in Beijing, although it doesn't offer video streaming service in China. And Grab has an office in Beijing too, although it only targets Southeast Asia market.

By working at the foreign china office for 1 year they can move to the USA on L visas, which don't have the limits that H1B visas do.

Then they can offer them higher compensation in a country that is not polluted.