But if a lot of traders think this way, they may have high execution cost when the contract expires and they try to sell the spot. Specifically, a lot of selling pressure by this kind of trade will push down the spot price and the traders may not be able to sell the spot at the price of the futures cash settlement. So, there is a connection but only up to a point.

Of course there a probably traders doing other kinds of trades that have a different effects on the prices, but it's quite tricky to analyze, compared to a physically-settled contract.