Re:A tale of two bubbles, the dot-coms and Bitcoin
by marvin on Friday December 08, 2017 @12:07PM
(#15880128)
With the market cap of Bitcoin at $250 billion, we are already 1/4 of the way there. So if your numbers are right, you won't make more than 4x by buying BTC at the current price.
1) Do you think in 50 years there will be 150 nation state currencies or mainly a single global one?
2) Do you think the world superpowers (china, russia, US) will refuse to let another superpower's currency become the single global currency?
3) What will the total market cap of this currency be?
4) What is the chance that bitcoin or some derived form in which current holdings are preserved is that currency?
Now put a value on probability or amount for each of these statements. Here's my personal belief for example:
1 x 2 x 3 x 4 = ?
50% x 70% x 30 trillion x 10% = 1.05 trillion