Sorry, trying to read this was so painful and time wasting on mobile.

For anyone else not interested in scrolling:

Conclusion: It’s obviously a simplified model and you can play around with the numbers and get marginally different results, but the key insight is that even if you’re a fervent crypto believer, if you think there is a nonzero chance a crash might happen then in order to maximize your EV (i.e. make the most money) you should keep some % of your money on the sidelines to invest once the bubble pops and lower your average buy-in cost. The higher the probability you assign to a crash, the more money you should keep on the sidelines and vice versa