I think there's something called 'anchoring' in negotiation where the first number dropped is usually what people dance around afterwards. Waiting for the offer and then negotiating is letting the hiring manager do the anchoring. Where as I think what the root comment is saying is for you to set the anchor first.

This means that negotiation actually begins much earlier than when the offer happens. In that case then everyone is considered negotiating.

It feels like there's some value in disclosing that's greater than the risk of leaving money on the table if the other groups behave as expected, but I can't put my finger on it. Maybe just one of those economic fallacies.

Whoever says a number first loses. That's some piece of wisdom that I don't recall the source of, but I believe it addresses what you're feeling.

I think it's the opposite: it feels like this law might create an incentive for certain people to go first and thereby change the meaning of not going first for everyone else.

But I can't support it, so I'm probably wrong.

I hear that all the time but I have had decent success by giving a high number first. I have never had a company offer more than I expected.

Not true. It goes against price anchoring. Lowballing is as much risk as highballing for eiter side.

An incorrect meme.

Plus there is no perfect information. People in category #1 may not necessarily believe they are highly paid. The grass is always greener...