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Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by jstanley on Monday December 04, 2017 @09:52AM (#15844200)
> As the amount of coins grow the difficulty of calculating hashes increases.

This is wrong. As the amount of coins grow, the amount of coins generated per block decreases (it halves every ~4 years). The difficulty is completely unrelated to the amount of coins in existence and is instead derived from the hashrate: as hashrate increases, difficulty increases, to target a block rate of 1 per 10 minutes.

> Doesn’t this completely undercut the idea of bitcoin as currency?

I don't think so. Right now people can buy bitcoin which is "guaranteed to become more valuable", and yet they still choose to buy things other than bitcoin with their USD.

Why would it be different if their base currency was BTC instead of USD?

Even if you don't think bitcoin is "guaranteed to become more valuable", there are plenty of things that are close approximations to that (pick any good investment), and yet people still choose to buy things other than investments. How do you explain that? Whatever reasoning you use to explain that can be applied verbatim to explain why people will buy things with BTC instead of just holding it.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by wpietri on Monday December 04, 2017 @10:18AM (#15844437)
You're confusing investment use with currency use. Currencies need approximately stable values to be useful as mediums of exchange. Inflation and deflation can both wreck currencies. Investments, in contrast need to have generally increasing values to be useful as investments.

Bitcoin started as currency, but its enormously deflationary record has turned it into an investment.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by jstanley on Monday December 04, 2017 @10:52AM (#15844759)
You didn't address my argument. If bitcoin being deflationary would truly prevent people from buying things, then why doesn't it do so already? You can already buy bitcoin instead of anything else you want to buy, so why do people buy things other than bitcoin?

If you can explain why people might want other things more than they want bitcoin, you can explain why the existence of bitcoin won't prevent people from buying those things. And whether they already hold bitcoin or not is totally irrelevant.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by wpietri on Monday December 04, 2017 @02:42PM (#15846774)
I don't think you actually have an argument. I think you are confused.

Bitcoin's deflationary nature makes it bad as a currency. The rapid price gains do indeed prevent people from using it to buy things. Here, noted investor and Bitcoin proponent Fred Wilson has said he's stopped using it for commerce: http://avc.com/2017/08/store-of-value-vs-payment-system/

This is in contrast with cash, which people don't hold on to in the same way. Nobody goes out to dinner and says, "I'm only getting a appetizer because this $20 bill will be worth more next week."

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by jstanley on Monday December 04, 2017 @05:43PM (#15848242)
No, I think you are confused.

Bitcoin already exists in the world. People can already buy bitcoin instead of other things, and yet people still buy other things. Why is that?

Nobody says "I'm only getting a appetizer because if I invest the money instead this $20 will be worth more next week."

Investments already exist and yet they don't stop people from spending on other things.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by wpietri on Monday December 04, 2017 @07:33PM (#15848845)
The discussion is not about people randomly buying things higglety-pigglety. The specific point is "Doesn’t this completely undercut the idea of bitcoin as currency?" It does.

Currencies are well-studied economic entities. So are investments. They have different purposes, and people behave differently with respect to them. You can feign ignorance of the two all you like, but that does not erase the difference.

> Nobody says "I'm only getting a appetizer because if I invest the money instead this $20 will be worth more next week."

People in fact do that all the time. People spend less so they can invest more. They trade currency for an asset whose value they expect to appreciate. If that asset does indeed appreciate, they are far more likely to hold onto it than cash, especially if they expect to it to appreciate yet more.

I gave you a specific example of a prominent investor and Bitcoin advocate shifting from treating Bitcoin as a currency to treating it as an investment. Which you ignored, just like you're ignoring basics facts about finance.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by hndamien on Monday December 04, 2017 @11:39PM (#15849770)
The difference is semantic. You don't invest in a depreciating asset (USD). Despite this fact, you still do have and use depreciating assets - cars, inflationary currencies. It just so happens, that your preference is to get rid of bad money first (Gresham's law). When the bad money is gone, all you are left with is the next worst money/ wealth you have (money as in M0,M1 money stock etc.)
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by wpietri on Tuesday December 05, 2017 @02:55PM (#15855199)
The difference is definitely not semantic when we are discussing the utility of a technology for a given use case.

It's like saying all computers are basically the same -- which they are -- and then going on to conclude desktops and smartphones and rack-mounted servers are all interchangeable.

Bitcoin may be a great investment asset. Time will tell. But its deflationary nature and its high volatility make it a bad currency. That's in obvious contrast to the original intention, which was a "purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution."

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by hndamien on Thursday December 07, 2017 @09:59PM (#15876358)
Why is deflation bad?
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by wpietri on Friday December 08, 2017 @10:15AM (#15879170)
Deflation is bad for a currency because it means the currency will be worth more later. People hold on to things that they think will be more later. Currency, though, should be something people are comfortable spending.

See here, for example, for a prominent Bitcoin advocate explaining that he no longer uses it as a currency: http://avc.com/2017/08/store-of-value-vs-payment-system/

This is especially a problem when a currency is used by a lot of people. It discourages economic activity and increases the value of debt. Imagine, for example, that you had taken out a Bitcoin-denominated car loan on Jan 1 2016 with a monthly payment of 1 BTC. That's about $440 at the time, or 15 hours at the median US wage. Now you'd have to work 40x as much to cover the loan payment, or about 20 hours a day just for your car. Meaning you would have been driven into bankruptcy.

Luckily for its users, Bitcoin never really took off as a currency, so their debts are in much more stable national currencies. But as you see with Fred Wilson, many experience sharp regret for the times they did use it as a currency.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by ohashi on Monday December 04, 2017 @01:26PM (#15846183)
It does, nobody actually uses bitcoin to buy things. The only people making money from bitcoin are exchanges and the speculators on the winning side of bets.
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by alphydan on Monday December 04, 2017 @01:44PM (#15846324)
I regularly buy hosting, domains, hardware (heck, I bought some electronics which would be worth $50,000 today). I don't see a problem.
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by spelunker on Monday December 04, 2017 @02:42PM (#15846779)
> heck, I bought some electronics which would be worth $50,000 today

You don't see that as a problem? Why buy things with BTC when it's better (for now) to just hold it?

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by ric2b on Tuesday December 05, 2017 @09:47AM (#15851971)
That is equivalent to saying: "Why buy anything at all when it's better to buy Bitcoin?"

It's the same thing: opportunity cost of not owning Bitcoin (or any other investment). Each person decides how confortable they are with the risk.

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by spelunker on Tuesday December 05, 2017 @02:36PM (#15855004)
No it's not. I'm happy to buy things with my fiat currency because it's not increasing in value at astonishing rates. I'll just keep my bitcoins and cash out some when I want to buy stuff.
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by jstanley on Monday December 04, 2017 @05:41PM (#15848231)
But people buy other things! Why don't they just buy bitcoin instead?
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by imtringued on Monday December 04, 2017 @11:22AM (#15845004)
I would say thanks to it's deflationary nature it is no longer a currency, just an investment.
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by jstanley on Monday December 04, 2017 @11:40AM (#15845166)
You also haven't addressed my argument. It doesn't matter whether you call it a currency or investment.

There are already things you can buy that are likely to go up in value over time, relative to the US dollar (e.g. stock market index funds). If the existence of those investments (that people can buy instead of other things) doesn't stop people from buying other things, why would a deflationary bitcoin stop people from buying other things?

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by wpietri on Monday December 04, 2017 @02:43PM (#15846789)
Currency and investment are two totally different use cases. People's intentions and behaviors with respect to them are totally different.
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by vasilipupkin on Monday December 04, 2017 @02:03PM (#15846479)
people don't buy things by paying for them with US stock index funds. They pay for them with the cash portion of their portfolio. I mean sure, at some point they convert parts of their stock portfolio to cash. the reason it matters whether it is currency or an investment is, if it is an investment, then it should be valued on principles we use for valuing other investments.
Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by jstanley on Monday December 04, 2017 @05:45PM (#15848256)
The only reason to hold off on purchases because you think your bitcoin will go up in value is because you think your bitcoin will go up in value.

But that applies just as well even if you don't already own the bitcoin (you could just buy bitcoin instead of the other thing). Why does anyone buy anything that's not bitcoin? Because they want those things more than they want bitcoin. That doesn't stop being true just because you can pay for things in bitcoin.

Identical reasoning applies if you replace "bitcoin" with anything else that you think is going to go up in value over time. And people still buy things. The sky isn't going to fall down!

Re:CBOE Will Start Bitcoin Futures Trading on December 10 by vasilipupkin on Monday December 04, 2017 @08:47PM (#15849171)
It's not symmetric though. If I sell bitcoin to buy toothpaste, I will need to pay taxes and transaction costs, so I will probably just use cash to buy toothpaste, not bitcoin.