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Re:What happens when patients find out how good their doctor... by MarkMc on Monday December 04, 2017 @03:37AM (#15842489)
> I don't think the analogy fits. There's no single metric (like runner speed/time) to evaluate competence.

Let me suggest such a metric: A T-value. That is, the degree to which the actual outcome deviates from the expected outcome.

For example, say you have a hospital that does stem cell transplants. For each patient before the treatment you assess the "chance that the patient will die within 1 year" based on that patient's age, sex, BMI, heart and lung function, type of disease, time since last relapse, quality of donor match, etc. From this you estimate that 19.6% of the hospital's patients who are treated over a particular period will die within 1 year, with a standard deviation of 3.7%. The actual mortality rate for this group of patients turns out to be 26.2%. So the T-value is +1.78; this is the 'single metric' used to evaluate the competence of the hospital.

> there's the problem of deference to eminence combined with small in-bred communities within each speciality or sub-specialty (who would likely be the only people with the training to evaluate their peers reliably).

Keep in mind that expertise is only required in estimating pre-treatment "chance that the patient will die within 1 year". Determining whether a patient is alive after a year and calculating the T-value can be done by anyone. And even when estimating expected mortality, there is plenty of evidence that a simple algorithm can actually beat the experts - Daniel Kahneman devotes a whole chapter to this point in 'Thinking Fast and Slow' [1].

[1] Chapter 21: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00555X8OA/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?...

Re:What happens when patients find out how good their doctor... by neuro_imager on Monday December 04, 2017 @09:06AM (#15843864)
Overall, I like the idea of a metric such as the one you describe. However, a change in one year mortality rate is unlikely to be a reliable indicator of the efficiency of most treatments. Most medical interventions have more modest effects than definite improvement in short term survival.
Re:What happens when patients find out how good their doctor... by MarkMc on Monday December 04, 2017 @11:43AM (#15845198)
Sure, there might be better metrics than 1-year survival and different treatments could have different metrics.