Maybe someone has access to the study this is based on and can clarify something: "The researchers defined a bubble as a sharp price run-up over a two-year followed by at least a 40% drop over the subsequent two years."

OK, so the claim is that Bitcoin is likely to drop 40% sometime within the next two years. My question is, what is the 40% relative to? Is it relative to the peak maximum? That is, assuming we are at the maximum right now, would the 40% be a drop to $6000?

I'm asking this carefully because "Bitcoin will drop to $6000" isn't exactly scary to anyone who bought Bitcoin more than a month ago. On the other hand, if the 40% is relative to some presumed stable plateau before the price run-up, i.e., to a Bitcoin price of $1000 or less, that would be enormous.

EDIT: Just to clarify, I understand that "at least 40%" can be considerably more than 40%.