By Japanese index, I assume you mean the Nikkei 225. And don't you mean 1989 crash's low? The 21k levels have now become the new highs.

Calling a low is almost as impossible as calling a high. Though there are methodologies like Graham's which provide decent net-nets to invest in. A study on the Graham stocks since 1990: http://www.netnethunter.com/benjamin-graham-is-this-where-mo...

So, it really depends on the methods used to find the bargain which matters.