Which is exactly how you described people "speculating" with Bitcoin. There is no difference.
No - utterly not the same thing.
When we make assertions about the 'future' of Apple, we are making rational assumptions about demand, value chains, tax codes.
When you see the various predictions or valuations for Apple stock price - there is some 'consensus'. We reward those with better predictive capability - and this enhances civilization at least a little bit.
For BTC - there is no 'valuation'. There is no 'prediction'.
It's predicting BTC is like predicting the flip of a coin - or rather, it's just a game of trying to predict how average joe's across the street will value it. There is no objective means to value it - so it's a total crap shoot. BTC is just a meme.
Analysts doing industrial forecasts add some value to society in the end.
Predicting the value of BTC ads zero value.
"But as a HN reader I would expect you to understand" ...
HN readers tend to have a high level of technical ability, and are very intelligent - but generally have a very limited understanding of finance and economics. Combined with some hubris, this makes for problems.
BTC is the intersection of this: super cool tech promulgated mostly by people who have not clue what a 'currency' is, and of course, the hustlers who do know but don't care.
BTC is a very neat idea, that won't work for anything, and ultimately, it's turned into a hustle.
I hope BTC fails because it's a massively stupid waste of time.
It's 'making people money' about as much as any other Ponzi scheme.
There are other fintech avenues to pursue that are better for everyone.
+ Uhm, why? Our current currencies are very useful as currencies. Nobody wants VISA charges, but that's a secondary issue, nothing to do with decentralization.
"But what you describe is no different from any other investment."
+ No - not at all. Putting money in BTC is just speculation, it's not investing. It's not the same as buying stocks, bonds or real estate.
When we invest, we make assertions about the future value of the stock. Also - can possibly take control over the company and direct it to create greater value.