It's public health, so they're talking about an entire population.

If a million people drink no more than 14 units per week we see this much cancer, fatty liver disease, cirrhosis, etc.

If a million people drink no more than 28 units a week we see this much more cancer, etc.

Translating these population level risks back to an individual is hard.

This doesn't mean the numbers are pulled out of thin air.

Don't forget there are many multi-billion dollar industries trying to make people drink more, and stop people drinking less.

Propability and statistics aren’t lost on me. I’m also aware of a movement in the medical association to target moderate use alcohol as a societal problem. Which is fine and good but comes off a bit hypocritical as they are the cause of the opioid crisis, and have been over prescribing antibiotics for decades. All pharmaceuticals have risks and they give them out like candy. 13% of the population is on antidepressants which have serious side effects. (And Which may or may not work, depending on who you ask.) and Tylenol also is responsible for 78,000 overdoses per year. 34,000 of which are considered critical.

Alcohol is an effective helpful drug and when used in moderation can help relieve stress, reduce headaches, induce euphoria, cause calming, and in some studies is good for your heart. Some chemo patents say it helps too.

Don’t drink to get drunk. Don’t drink every day.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/antidepressant-use-soars-65-per...

https://healthimpactnews.com/2013/tylenol-is-killing-america...

Edit: also I have yet to see anyone mention weight to alcohol consumption. If we are going to quantify safe conconsistant levels body weight should be a factor. It’s revealing that so many are doling out medical advice and judgement on on what is too much and no one has bothered to ask how much the OP weighs.

Yes, the guidelines for safe amount of units per week are basically arbitrary and not based on anything scientific, and vary a lot by country. [1]

For example, where I am from, Canada, the Canada Low Risk Alcohol Drinking Guidelines state that men should limit their intake to 15 drinks per week, where a drink is defined as 12 oz of 5% beer, 5 oz of 12% wine, or 1.5 oz of 40% spirit.

OP would hardly be exceeding the guidelines if he was from Canada, and not exceeding the guidelines if he was from Fiji.

This is why merely looking at the guidelines is dumb instead of the many other visible factors (personal relationships, weight, athletic performance, academics, etc.)

[1] https://health.spectator.co.uk/the-great-alcohol-cover-up-ho...

[2] http://www.ccsa.ca/Resource%20Library/2012-Canada-Low-Risk-A...

OP is drinking well over the Canadian guidelines.

The canadian guidelines are about 240 ml of pure alcohol per week.

At 3 bottles of 12% wine Op is drinking about 270 ml of alcohol.

At 4 bottles of 14% wine op is drinking about 410 ml of alcohol.

Note Canada has higher than expected rates of alcohol related harm:http://www.who.int/substance_abuse/publications/global_alcoh...