Simpson's Paradox and the Hot Hand in Basketball (1995)

Re:Simpson's Paradox and the Hot Hand in Basketball (1995) by rossdavidh on Saturday November 25, 2017 @08:08PM (#15778913)

The hot hand "fallacy" has actually been under a bit of a revisionist assault lately. An example (from baseball): https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/baseballs-hot-hand-is-r... TLDR: there is a hot hand (in baseball pitching, anyway), but you have to be very, very good at statistics to see that, or else just a big baseball fan. If you have just pretty good statistics, and you don't have a baseball fanatic's intuition, you can (erroneously) conclude that there is no (pitcher's) hot hand (in baseball).

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Re:Simpson's Paradox and the Hot Hand in Basketball (1995) by fossuser on Saturday November 25, 2017 @08:48PM (#15779048)

I’ve always suspected this fallacy in terms of sports was a bad example - since humans doing certain motor/coordination actions and getting feedback on that success seemed likely to stack.

I wonder if it holds in other contexts.

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Re:Simpson's Paradox and the Hot Hand in Basketball (1995) by cirgue on Saturday November 25, 2017 @10:05PM (#15779245)

Another point of view is that this makes sports a great example: we believe the 'hot-hand' phenomenon intuitively, but the statistics tell a complicated and seemingly contradictory story.

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