The days of just targeting you based on the content site are over, now demographics and your search/click history plays a role too.
Maybe they have a few percent better accuracy than guessing at random. And that might be worth a few billions. But on an individual level they just don't have the slightest clue.
edit: State of the art tracking seems to be "look at what products user x has looked at, show the exact same product everywhere after he/she probably bought it".
Now if you do have and use a facebook account that is another thing.
Can you give some sources for your claim?
I guess the most tangible data point is when google allowed you to look at what google thought if you (gender, age, interests etc.) and how bad they are at it unless you actually use their services.
It is obvious they would be far better of targeting sites than users without accounts. But that is not where their competitive edge is so they downplay that. Also, I guess they are big enough to not care about people without accounts.
No tracking needed. Much better accuracy and return.