Heres some actual data, which is very worrisome and is not getting the attention it deserves
Microfinance data -
>As shown in the table, PAR > 30 days has spiked drastically across most of the states. Compared to the figures for March 31, 2016, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra registered an incredible increase of nearly 100 times as on 31st March, 2017. States such as Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Gujarat, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka experienced increases between 11% and 22% compared to the much lower pre-demonetisation levels. By 31 December, PAR>30 days had increased from a meagre 0.5% in the previous quarters to around 8%.
http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/jVE367mp7AamTbHD5dG0lK/Demon...
This means that money lenders are quite likely going to get stronger, because this suggests very large distress at the bottom of the pyramid.
And This data never shows up in GDP, by definition the unstructured part of the economy is not part of GDP figures.
This has a knock on effect on demand, and therefore on economic growth.
And recent news suggests that MNREGA funds have not been released by many states because they haven;t gotten them from the center.
I think this is imperiling the BJPs chances of survival. I expected some loss of seats in the next election (I know that even the BJP top brass didnt expect a full majority during the last election.) but if these canaries in the coal mine are accurate, it suggests large distress which is still to come down the pipe.
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/money-and-banking/indias...
Go find an article on what moneylenders are doing today. They are still lending. But from their bank accounts not from under their mattress.
Just blind reactions without knowing how the world works has become very fashionable today.
May be in places like Kormangala, Marathalli or alike, where techies pay 1.5 crores for a 2BHK home, or rent it for 50K a month. And shop at DMart's and BigBazaar.
In rest of the Bangalore, we don't have merchants with card machines going around the corner. In my home we buy vegetables from push cart vendors, and other groceries from the shop around the corner. They don't have card machines. Their profit margin, and people shopping there, have their thin incomes, where they can't afford to pay for the infrastructure or the transaction fees.
Edit: Ppl celebrating demonetisation doesn't refer to HN but a broader group in India.