Re:You Will Lose Your Job to a Robot and Sooner Than You Think
by adventured on Monday November 06, 2017 @09:39AM
(#15635727)
Truck drivers are held up as the classic example of a job that will be decimated very soon. A million jobs, wiped out, read the fear mongering headlines.
The hysteria is remarkable. Ten Million plus jobs are created and destroyed every single year in the US. We're facing at least a 8-12 million person jobs gap, in terms of not having enough labor, over the next ten years alone (with 6.5 million unfilled full-time jobs right now and the U6 rate pushing down toward two decade lows). And that's assuming modest average economic growth of perhaps 1.5% annually (2.5-3% and we'll have an extreme labor shortage).
To amplify the actual context problem, if we had a perfect solution for automating away truck driving jobs today, it would take decades to fully deploy it. In reality, we're still a decade away from meaningful scale commercial testing.
The hysteria is remarkable. Ten Million plus jobs are created and destroyed every single year in the US. We're facing at least a 8-12 million person jobs gap, in terms of not having enough labor, over the next ten years alone (with 6.5 million unfilled full-time jobs right now and the U6 rate pushing down toward two decade lows). And that's assuming modest average economic growth of perhaps 1.5% annually (2.5-3% and we'll have an extreme labor shortage).
To amplify the actual context problem, if we had a perfect solution for automating away truck driving jobs today, it would take decades to fully deploy it. In reality, we're still a decade away from meaningful scale commercial testing.