Not certainly - it's very common for a neighborhood to shoot up in value (because of something that individual homeowners don't do, like a major employer moving in or getting successful, or a train station being built, or a nearby neighborhood getting full), and so the market value of the same home at the same condition can increase dramatically just because the neighborhood has more demand.

40% in 2-3 years is pretty unlikely, even in the hottest markets. But even still, does that mean you discontinue shopping in the neighborhood altogether? Because all the surrounding homes would have seen the same increase?

40% in 2-3 years is unlikely, but still happens. Small town + business taking off can quickly dry up all available housing.

I suspect if you look around say the Tesla Gigafactory, local housing prices had a massive spike at some point.

Yes, I said unlikely and I meant it?

Sorry, I mean yes it's uncommon, however it's also predictable. Iif you know where a new factory is going ahead of time that drastically alters the probabilities.