Paul, thanks for the comment and I agree with you: luck and timing are two external factors that have significant influence on the outcome, and strategists have little if any control over either. The only "counsel" I can provide is the idea of being as iterative as possible, and try to adapt / respond to the result (test => observe => refine). If you had $10 to bet on the same probability outcomes, rather than betting all $10 on one outcome, if you could play it by putting $1 on 5 outcomes and reserving the remaining $5 to double down on your highest probability winner, you're much better-positioned, statistically, to come out ahead.