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A comment on What I Learned from Losing $200M (2015). Parent comment

Re:What I Learned from Losing $200M (2015) by the_cat_kittles on Thursday November 02, 2017 @10:40PM (#15616318)
assuming you want a bayesian approach? take a flat prior and look at the MAP? though you know its just going to be the observed rate. if you know you only have a fair coin or a double head coin just compare their likelihoods? what is the point you are trying to get at?
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Re:What I Learned from Losing $200M (2015) by yters on Friday November 03, 2017 @12:10AM (#15616631)
Solomonoff induction and universal probability.
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Re:What I Learned from Losing $200M (2015) by yters on Friday November 03, 2017 @01:35AM (#15616906)
P(all heads|double headed coin) = 1

P(all heads|fair coin) = 2^{-L}

Applying Bayes gets P(double headed coin|all heads) >> P(fair coin|all heads) for a long enough sequence.

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Re:What I Learned from Losing $200M (2015) by the_cat_kittles on Friday November 03, 2017 @02:50AM (#15617132)
thats what i suggested originally, essentially
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Re:What I Learned from Losing $200M (2015) by the_cat_kittles on Friday November 03, 2017 @01:26AM (#15616884)
how about something specific. how would you answer the question you proposed used bayesian methods?
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