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Re:Rise of the Creative Class Worked a Little Too Well by indubitable on Friday October 27, 2017 @03:38PM (#15571555)
This article made me curious about something, statistic wise, with inequality.

Imagine we have a kingdom of a million workers and one king. Inequality would be mostly invisible. Unless you compare yourself to the king (and who would dare do such a thing..), you're doing pretty well - or at least as well as average. But now let's imagine the king wants to modernize his land. So he starts developing and training people. And now we have 1 king, 50,000 skilled experts, and 950,000 workers. Well there's not that many of those skilled workers, so they must still be pretty special. It seems kind of unfair, but things are still pretty decent.

And now imagine the king trains another 50,000 experts and grants 10,000 of the already existing experts vast tracts of land. Now we have 900,000 workers, 90,000 experts, and 10,000 lords. Now inequality is starting to feel very real. There are lots of these guys and they don't seem to be anything special. How is it that they're doing so well, while the majority struggles?

I think we can say that the king's actions have greatly benefited society. Yet there's a strange paradox. As benefit, and privilege, comes to more and more people - it seems ever more unfair for those yet to benefit themselves. And now imagine by the time our hypothetical skilled individuals start to become the majority. It would begin to seem something beyond fair. As we start to see things like there being only 200,000 workers left, they would start to see their situation as more and more desperate. Indeed they would start to seem to be a sort of slave caste.

A quick search for information to try to see if this is indeed what is happening yielded this [1] study which seems to lend some credence to this possibility. In particular they examined the percent of individuals in each income group, based on real incomes. These showed that the middle class has been substantially chiseled out (shrinking from 38.8% to 32% of the population) but that alone is disingenuous. What's happening to every class's population? Here are their data for this specific question:

- Change in share of each class as a percent of US population. 1979 -> 2014

-----

- Rich: 0.1% -> 1.8%

- Upper Middle Class: 12.9% -> 29.4%

- Middle Class: 38.8% -> 32%

- Lower Middle Class: 23.9% -> 17.1%

- Poor or Near-Poor: 24.3% -> 19.8%

-----

This seems incredibly positive at a glance, but this change in demographics has indeed resulted in very large measurable changes in inequality. In particular in 1979 the bottom 3 economic classes controlled 70% of all income, with the upper class and rich controlling the remaining 30%. Today those numbers have practically swapped. The lower 3 classes control 37% of all income to 63% for the rich and upper middle class. Though, on the other hand, the top groups have also more than doubled in size.

One other issue I noticed is that the study (at least at a somewhat intensive glance) did not seem to meaningfully consider that many things critical to the growth and health of the lower classes, such as education and housing, have inflated in price far beyond nominal inflation rates. So real income measurements can be quite misleading. Nonetheless, I'm not sure why but I had not strongly considered this before. This article emphasizing the inequality as more of a changing of demographics than an existing demographic making themselves even richer was what brought it to mind.

[1] - https://www.urban.org/research/publication/growing-size-and-...

Re:Rise of the Creative Class Worked a Little Too Well by hkmurakami on Friday October 27, 2017 @03:43PM (#15571590)
I have thought something similar as well. If you have one Bill Gates and everyone else making $80k, then Bill Gates has a pretty low upper limit on consumption of scarce assets, and thus goods and services are not bid up. But when a larger and larger number of people make more than their peers, then you start to have a bidding war for scarce goods (ex: housing, education, etc). Hats what you have in the Bay Area. More people than ever making more money than ever before, while supply hasn't increased to keep up.

This is something that my typical SF tech peer does not seem to grasp. Relative compensation vs your economic competitors (other knowledge workers in the Bay) matters much more than your absolute pay when considering your ability to afford the good life in a supply constrained environment.

Re:Rise of the Creative Class Worked a Little Too Well by WalterBright on Friday October 27, 2017 @03:54PM (#15571671)
Industries that have government heavily involved in (health care, education, housing) have seen huge runups in prices. Ones government is not involved in (such as software) have seen precipitous price declines.
Re:Rise of the Creative Class Worked a Little Too Well by maxxxxx on Friday October 27, 2017 @04:11PM (#15571813)
You can't blame everything on government involvement. You can't just not get involved in heath care, education or housing, You may get sick, to get a job you often need a degree and you need to live somewhere. But you can live without an iphone.
Re:Rise of the Creative Class Worked a Little Too Well by WalterBright on Friday October 27, 2017 @07:08PM (#15572977)
You need food, too, and food is dirt cheap, and there's far less government involved with that. (Yes, I know about the USDA and agricultural subsidies, but the latter doesn't apply to all the food shipped into the US.)
Re:Rise of the Creative Class Worked a Little Too Well by maxxxxx on Friday October 27, 2017 @07:18PM (#15573024)
As far as I know the food basics are highly subsidized. Isn't the yearly farm bill around 20 billion?
Re:Rise of the Creative Class Worked a Little Too Well by WalterBright on Friday October 27, 2017 @09:06PM (#15573454)
US population is 323.1m, annual food per is $6000, or roughly $180b. Even more roughly, then 10% of the food budget is subsidized. $20b doesn't explain cheap food prices.
Re:Rise of the Creative Class Worked a Little Too Well by saas_co_de on Friday October 27, 2017 @04:04PM (#15571756)
yeah, deflation is bad for the economy, unless it is high tech, in which case staggering rates of year-after-year deflation for decades on end are the engine of economic growth.
Re:Rise of the Creative Class Worked a Little Too Well by hkmurakami on Friday October 27, 2017 @04:08PM (#15571784)
At least in the states, both healthcare and education are subsidized by the government so everyone can "afford" to pay more.
Re:Rise of the Creative Class Worked a Little Too Well by scientistem on Friday October 27, 2017 @04:50PM (#15572115)
I would not describe government as heavily involved in health care. The prices you see rising are from lack of meaningful competition and transparency allowing providers and insurance companies to dictate prices virtually arbitrarily and certainly irrationally to the consumer using the services.

Meanwhile, government is the only meaningful access many have to healthcare and education.

Re:Rise of the Creative Class Worked a Little Too Well by WalterBright on Friday October 27, 2017 @05:09PM (#15572249)
About half of health care spending in this country is done by the government. That's heavily involved by any metric. Secondly, the amount of regulation of it is very, very heavy.

The price rises are due to this. See

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2009/09/how-ame...

Note how prices for Lasik eye surgery, which has little government involvement, have trended down dramatically.

Re:Rise of the Creative Class Worked a Little Too Well by scientistem on Friday October 27, 2017 @06:16PM (#15572640)
While that may be true, the causal link between government spending and high prices is unclear. The vast majority of waste I see getting healthcare myself is the absolutely massive cost of dealing with insurance itself. This is an industry (billing!) that employs vast numbers of people. I think it’s much more likely the high costs are an effect of ludicrously poor price transparency and the unsustainable healthcare practices that this sustains. At worst, government regulation exacerbates this; I think you’d be hard pressed to demonstrate it’s the primary cause.

Either way, we need price transparency before people start acting rationally, and government regulation of irrational spending is going to be wasteful. Price transparency would make the promise of single payer (government) healthcare actually sustainable for a populace; without it, you’re just making the healthcare industry richer without actually providing a proportionate amount of care to the public.

Re:Rise of the Creative Class Worked a Little Too Well by WalterBright on Friday October 27, 2017 @06:51PM (#15572868)
It's the primary cause. See the article I linked to. Government payments, subsidies, regulations, and tax policy all act to distort market incentives.
Re:Rise of the Creative Class Worked a Little Too Well by scientistem on Friday October 27, 2017 @07:01PM (#15572935)
Hmm, I suppose we have different standards for evidence.
Re:Rise of the Creative Class Worked a Little Too Well by WalterBright on Friday October 27, 2017 @07:05PM (#15572959)
Why have software prices trended to zero, in spite of the desires of their capitalist creators to make it as expensive as possible?
Re:Rise of the Creative Class Worked a Little Too Well by scientistem on Friday October 27, 2017 @07:08PM (#15572975)
Well, I’d assume price competition. (I appreciate the response!) How can you expect prices to improve if you can’t shop around?
Re:Rise of the Creative Class Worked a Little Too Well by WalterBright on Friday October 27, 2017 @08:58PM (#15573432)
Shopping around in health care is greatly restricted by government policy. Tax policy, for example, is why health insurance tends to be tied to your employer, unlike car insurance. The supply of MDs is closely controlled and restricted by the AMA in order to drive up prices.

See "Competition and Monopoly" by Frecht.

The supply of drugs is heavily restricted by patents and the FDA. See "Regulation of Pharmaceutical Innovation" by Peltzman.

Re:Rise of the Creative Class Worked a Little Too Well by nickpp on Friday October 27, 2017 @04:57PM (#15572172)
The very lack of meaningful competition and transparency is caused by and a symptom of heavy government involvement.

Governments corrupt markets.

Re:Rise of the Creative Class Worked a Little Too Well by scientistem on Friday October 27, 2017 @04:15PM (#15571855)
Well, average pay in SF is only high if you ignore the homeless person sleeping on your stoop. In that sense the job would be extremely rewarding compared to other parts of the country. If you only compare yourself to people in like jobs, that reward vanishes almost entirely for the average worker.
Re:Rise of the Creative Class Worked a Little Too Well by psadri on Friday October 27, 2017 @04:48PM (#15572107)
Happiness is relative.

Humans (and animals) value "fairness" even if they are objectively better off. There is a famous experiment where two monkeys are given a cucumber every day. They are both happy. Then one of them starts getting grapes (sweeter than cucumber). The monkey that doesn't get the grapes rejects the cucumber in protest.

https://youtu.be/meiU6TxysCg