The Unforgiving Math That Stops Epidemics

Re:The Unforgiving Math That Stops Epidemics by exhilaration on Thursday October 26, 2017 @03:38PM (#15562258)

Even if you do get the vaccine, there's no guarantee that it will actually include your new virulent strain.

True, for reference look at this table from the CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/vaccination/effectiven...

  2011-12: 47% vaccine effectiveness 
  2012-13: 49% vaccine effectiveness 
  2013-14: 52% vaccine effectiveness 
  2014-15: 19% vaccine effectiveness 
  2015-16: 48% vaccine effectiveness 
  2016-17: 42% vaccine effectiveness

But I still get my flu shot every year, better to be 40-50% protected than 0%.

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Re:The Unforgiving Math That Stops Epidemics by lr4444lr on Thursday October 26, 2017 @03:47PM (#15562339)

Are you sure the R0 of the original article isn't determined accounting for the fact of vaccine ineffectiveness?

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Re:The Unforgiving Math That Stops Epidemics by btilly on Thursday October 26, 2017 @05:36PM (#15563267)

The R0 of the original article is determined on the assumption that nobody is immunized at all.

Vaccine ineffectiveness is the odds that when you are potentially infected by a wild flu, the virus that you encounter was one that you were vaccinated against.

Vaccines are more effective when they correctly predict what varieties of flu will be circulating. But the more effective the immunization program, the more the ones that they predicted become and the less effective the vaccine becomes. However we all benefit because less flu is in the environment.

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Re:The Unforgiving Math That Stops Epidemics by exhilaration on Thursday October 26, 2017 @03:51PM (#15562388)

I don't know, corrections are welcome!

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