Elsewhere in the thread someone gave the example of heliocentrism versus geocentrism. You can form a heliocentric model that makes accurate predictions, you just have to add epicycles to everything. But I would say that heliocentrism is not merely more elegant and more convenient, but also more true. Wouldn't you? For a more extreme example, in the story from http://lesswrong.com/lw/i4/belief_in_belief/ I think we would say that it isn't true that there's a dragon in the garage.