The research behind Clippy did sound like that -- it was serious AI for its time, using Bayesian networks. From http://erichorvitz.com/lum.htm it sounds like it was messed with in turning it into a product:

"The Office team has employed a relatively simple rule-based system on top of the Bayesian query analysis system to bring the agent to the foreground with a variety of tips. We had been concerned upon hearing this plan that this system would be distracting to users--and hoped that future versions of the Office Assistant would employ our Bayesian approach to guiding speculative assistance actions--coupled with designs we had demonstrated for employing nonmodal windows that do not require dismissal when they are not used."