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Re:Central bank cryptocurrencies by EGreg on Monday September 18, 2017 @11:52PM (#15281661)
Deflationary currencies are hoarded, not spent in circulation. Even Aristophanes described it thousands of years ago. That's what advocates of "sound money" need to understand. Sound money is good, but for savings. On top of this you build other, less sound money, which circulates. This is also known as "Gresham's Law".
Re:Central bank cryptocurrencies by meri_dian on Tuesday September 19, 2017 @12:25AM (#15281764)
And that is exactly what is playing out with Bitcoin becoming a speculative investment vehicle rather than a currency.
Re:Central bank cryptocurrencies by mrb on Tuesday September 19, 2017 @12:44AM (#15281860)
Research before talking. Bitcoins are being spent more than ever: the transaction rate keeps increasing and is roughly doubling every 18 months https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?timespan=all&d...

Preemptive reply to those who think speculators cause the tx rate to increase (often an invalid comment thrown out in HN): no they don't. Speculators typically leave the coins in an exchange wallet (they are not sufficiently technically savvy or motivated to run their own wallet). Buying/selling on an exchange does NOT create a transaction on the blockchain.

Re:Central bank cryptocurrencies by danmaz74 on Tuesday September 19, 2017 @02:44AM (#15282307)
Speculators also move coins between exchanges in search of better speculation opportunities, and to convert from and to "fiat" in those exchanges that allow it (but are worse for specularing)
Re:Central bank cryptocurrencies by mrb on Tuesday September 19, 2017 @03:30PM (#15288029)
90% of speculators don't do this. The process to sign up and verify is usually so arduous (because of excessive fraud) that once they are verified they trade and stay at only one exchange.
Re:Central bank cryptocurrencies by prostoalex on Tuesday September 19, 2017 @02:25AM (#15282229)
> Speculators typically leave the coins in an exchange wallet (they are not sufficiently technically savvy or motivated to run their own wallet)

Source? After the Mt. Gox disaster the recommendation I've encountered most is to have the bulk of the digital assets in your own cold wallet, and only trust the exchange with the assets you can afford to lose. Since the deposits are near instantaneous, there's really no good reason to entrust the exchange with large chunks.

Re:Central bank cryptocurrencies by narrator on Tuesday September 19, 2017 @02:32AM (#15282264)
Nobel prize winner F.A Hayek wrote a great defense of deflationary currency and a rebuttal to Keynes back when he was debating Keynes in the 30s[1]. He also predicted Bitcoin with his book "The Denationalization of Money" written in the 1970s[2].

[1] https://mises.org/library/hayek-paradox-saving

[2] https://mises.org/library/denationalisation-money-argument-r...

Re:Central bank cryptocurrencies by notahacker on Tuesday September 19, 2017 @06:40AM (#15283334)
Hayek didn't really adequately defend a deflationary currency at all. Hayek was attacking a related, but different underconsumptionist argument that consumption was more important than investment.

The argument against [sustained] deflation is that investment will be reduced along with consumption. In order for investment to take place, it is necessary [though not sufficient] for the investor to expect to earn a money profit as a result. In the case of sustained deflation resulting from an economy being tied to a fixed supply of money, the expected money return on an average investment over a time period is negative (especially after adjusting for risk) and the expected real return to burying money in the garden is positive. Thus the money stock is more likely to be buried in the garden and less likely to be invested in production, with the result that less stuff is produced and sold than otherwise could have been.

The best thing that can be said about Hayek's argument as a defence of this is that he points out that profitable companies confident of still having a market in future might still be inclined to invest money in cutting production costs (which is true, and necessary for the deflation to be sustained, otherwise you can expect prices of goods to start rising again in future as a result of greatly reduced production) but there's no reason to expect that level of investment to not be lower than an economy where nobody is incentivised to hoard.

(the original paper is included in this compendium for those interested http://www.hayek.sk/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/hayekcollecti...)

Re:Central bank cryptocurrencies by ttoinou on Tuesday September 19, 2017 @09:18AM (#15284317)
If you keep the same deflationary money over the years, you are making a profit. So what's "good" is not a money which supply grows or shrinks, but a money with which people can make good predictions and plans accordingly.

Plus, burying your money is withdrawing it from the money supply, maybe it has effects like "giving it to everybody" ? (added the risk that you can dig the money and put it back into circulation)

Re:Central bank cryptocurrencies by EGreg on Tuesday September 19, 2017 @11:36AM (#15285572)
How do you know an elastic money supply is not better?

What is your criterion : goal for measuring how good a currency is?

Re:Central bank cryptocurrencies by neilwilson on Tuesday September 19, 2017 @03:10AM (#15282396)
He didn't win a Nobel Prize.

Neither did he come up with anything that actually passes muster.

Getting a chocolate medal from your mates in the same club doesn't qualify as credentials.

Re:Central bank cryptocurrencies by grzm on Tuesday September 19, 2017 @03:21AM (#15282455)
> Hayek shared the 1974 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences with Gunnar Myrdal for his "pioneering work in the theory of money and economic fluctuations and ... penetrating analysis of the interdependence of economic, social and institutional phenomena."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedrich_Hayek

Re:Central bank cryptocurrencies by kybernetikos on Tuesday September 19, 2017 @06:06AM (#15283182)
I suspect that rather than quibbling on the historical facts of the prizes award, the person you're responding to doesn't consider the Swedish National Bank's Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel to be a genuine Nobel Prize.
Re:Central bank cryptocurrencies by grzm on Tuesday September 19, 2017 @11:01AM (#15285230)
Thank you for the clarification. It's one I wish 'neilwilson had made as well, as it's easy to understand why one would think otherwise, particularly as they're announced and awarded along with the other Nobel laureates. Upon further reading, the prize's history with respect to Hayek is even more interesting:

> In his speech at the 1974 Nobel Prize banquet, Friedrich Hayek stated that had he been consulted on the establishment of a Nobel Prize in economics, he would "have decidedly advised against it" primarily because, "The Nobel Prize confers on an individual an authority which in economics no man ought to possess.... This does not matter in the natural sciences. Here the influence exercised by an individual is chiefly an influence on his fellow experts; and they will soon cut him down to size if he exceeds his competence. But the influence of the economist that mainly matters is an influence over laymen: politicians, journalists, civil servants and the public generally."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nobel_Memorial_Prize_in_Econom...

Thanks again. I appreciate the insight.

Re:Central bank cryptocurrencies by kybernetikos on Tuesday September 19, 2017 @07:20PM (#15289584)
That's a very interesting quote by Hayek.