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Re:Cryptocurrency chaos as China cracks down on ICOs by alexasmyths on Wednesday September 13, 2017 @05:57AM (#15236858)
"The utility as a currency is at best secondary, or even tertiary. It's only a matter of time until those bubbles burst."

The value as a currency is what would give them existential staying power.

The USD is not hugely valuable because it's backed by US treasuries - it's valuable because it's extremely liquid and can be used ubiquitously.

BTC etc. bubbles may not 'pop' like tulips, because there are a) institutional holders of major blocks that can do things to keep the price up, b) speculative holders have no need to liquidate and I think will want to 'hold' so as to avoid losses and c) there is a small 'actual' area wherein BTC is a currency, which is the black market. There is, globally enough of a 'general black market' to create some demand for BTC as a currency.

I think those 3 things combined means that it's possible BTC can hold it's 'paper value' for quite a long time.

Two other existential factors:

1) The BTC mania has yet to truly hit mainstream, and it's making it's way globally.

2) The press is still piling on the hyper. A lot of bloggers have positions in BTC they do not disclose.

But it's all ridiculous and fake speculation.

Jaimie Dimon is technically correct, this BTC 'makes no sense' - but if enough people believe in it enough, then it will exist.

Re:Cryptocurrency chaos as China cracks down on ICOs by vasilipupkin on Wednesday September 13, 2017 @10:41AM (#15238719)
yeah. Why do people buy gold for their portfolios? for the same reason BTC will exist.
Re:Cryptocurrency chaos as China cracks down on ICOs by Nursie on Wednesday September 13, 2017 @12:04PM (#15239607)
As a backup, so that if the shit hits the fan they have something that's held value and fascination for thousands of years?
Re:Cryptocurrency chaos as China cracks down on ICOs by vasilipupkin on Wednesday September 13, 2017 @12:29PM (#15239870)
right. So why does it hold value when shit hits the fan? you can't eat it, you can't treat a disease with it. Will it hold value in the future? My point is, it's really just convention. So, the same logic applies to bitcoin.
Re:Cryptocurrency chaos as China cracks down on ICOs by alexasmyths on Wednesday September 13, 2017 @02:04PM (#15240875)
"My point is, it's really just convention. So, the same logic applies to bitcoin."

Not quite ...

Gold is a 5000 year old convention - across cultures, languages, geographies and epochs.

BTC is a few years old, and nobody really cares about it that much.

Yes - they are essentially 'conventions', but they're so different in that regard they are hardly comparable.

Re:Cryptocurrency chaos as China cracks down on ICOs by vasilipupkin on Wednesday September 13, 2017 @02:24PM (#15241113)
yes, these differences are reflected in the market caps. But just cause some convention is 5000 years old, it doesn't mean new convention cannot overtake it. Bitcoin is 7 years old and doesn't seem to be going away.
Re:Cryptocurrency chaos as China cracks down on ICOs by Nursie on Wednesday September 13, 2017 @12:44PM (#15240016)
Bitcoin hardly has convention on its side at this point!

It has (artificial) scarcity.

I think you'd have to be very ... optimistic to view BTC as a long term hedge like gold right now.

Re:Cryptocurrency chaos as China cracks down on ICOs by vasilipupkin on Wednesday September 13, 2017 @12:49PM (#15240075)
right. It has less convention than gold and less valuation. Bitcoin market cap is what 50-70 billion?. What is the non-industrial fraction of gold's market cap? 1 trillion? so, if bitcoin permanently stays at 10% of gold's hedging value, it justifies a valuation of 100 billion. that's not counting at all usefulness of bitcoin for money transfers.
Re:Cryptocurrency chaos as China cracks down on ICOs by Nursie on Thursday September 14, 2017 @09:38AM (#15247857)
Ugh, methinks you are deliberately missing my point.

There is no reason to think bitcoin is a good long term hedge.

Re:Cryptocurrency chaos as China cracks down on ICOs by vasilipupkin on Thursday September 14, 2017 @10:01AM (#15248062)
there is no reason yet to think that. But my point is it could become that hedge. Because there is no fundamental reason for gold to be treated as that hedge. So, my point is, the fact that there is no fundamental reason to use bitcoin is not really a great argument against it. Because there is no fundamental reason to use gold and it is used anyway.
Re:Cryptocurrency chaos as China cracks down on ICOs by Nursie on Thursday September 14, 2017 @12:02PM (#15249311)
There's no fundamental reason, no, however it has proven desirable and valuable over thousands of years.

By your logic anything could be a hedge in future. Which is strictly speaking true, but not very useful.

You may wish to consider the ~25% drop we've seen in the last couple of weeks when deciding on how well bitcoin holds its value through the ages...

Re:Cryptocurrency chaos as China cracks down on ICOs by vasilipupkin on Thursday September 14, 2017 @12:24PM (#15249521)
gold is also volatile and has had 25% pullbacks. Plot gold over time and you'll see. Hedging is not about the volatility per se but about correlation with other investments.

anything could not be a hedge. It needs to be liquid, transferable, international, etc. etc. bitcoin is on the way there. I am not saying it will supplant gold, I am saying it could. that probability is certainly not zero.

Re:Cryptocurrency chaos as China cracks down on ICOs by Nursie on Thursday September 14, 2017 @12:27PM (#15249559)
And I think you're looking at the world through bitcoin-tinted glasses there.
Re:Cryptocurrency chaos as China cracks down on ICOs by vasilipupkin on Thursday September 14, 2017 @12:58PM (#15249952)
I wish I had been 5 years ago
Re:Cryptocurrency chaos as China cracks down on ICOs by Nursie on Friday September 15, 2017 @05:44AM (#15255828)
Well likewise when they were $0.50 a piece I toyed with the idea of getting some, just in case.

That doesn't mean I think they're a reliable investment or comparable to gold, just that in hindsight I could have been very rich by for a few bucks back then.

Ah well.

Re:Cryptocurrency chaos as China cracks down on ICOs by alexasmyths on Wednesday September 13, 2017 @02:01PM (#15240849)
"For the same reason BTC will exist."

Gold and BTC are not nearly the same thing.