Why Kim Jong-Un would not be irrational to use a nuclear bomb first

Re:Why Kim Jong-Un would not be irrational to use a nuclear ... by jlg23 on Friday September 08, 2017 @01:02PM (#15201935)

In January 1992[1], long after the Cuba Crisis, Robert S. McNamara attended a meeting with Castro. He asked Castro: 1) Did you know the warheads were there? 2) Would you have recommended to Chruschtschow to use the in the face of an US American attack? 3) If he had used them, what would have happened to Cuba?

His response: 1) I knew they were there. 2) I would not have recommended to Cruschtschow, I did recommend to use them. 3) What would have happened to Cuba? We would have been totally destroyed!

I think this story should be kept in mind when trying to predict behavior, esp. when the stakes are this high.

[1] Retold by Robert S. McNamara in "The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara": http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0317910/

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Re:Why Kim Jong-Un would not be irrational to use a nuclear ... by edison85 on Friday September 08, 2017 @01:14PM (#15202066)

We've been a few moments away from world destruction a few times. This was of course one of the biggest but so was that one malfunction when the Soviets believed we had launched a nuclear strike and ordered the same but the soldier declined to do so. Turned out it was an error. Many don't realize just how precarious a world is with ICBM technology. If they did I don't think they would hesitate for 1 minute to destroy NK years ago before they were first able to create mid range missles

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Re:Why Kim Jong-Un would not be irrational to use a nuclear ... by dogma1138 on Friday September 08, 2017 @06:36PM (#15204445)

It was after the fall of the USSR; AKA How did a Canadian rocket paid for by NASA, launched by Norwegian scientists almost doomed the world: http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/how-boris-saved-the-...

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Re:Why Kim Jong-Un would not be irrational to use a nuclear ... by dalbasal on Friday September 08, 2017 @01:13PM (#15202058)

Interesting anecdote, Thanks for posting.

But, presumably Castro was still playing the game even in 1992 ...at least in his mind. What was he going to say? I was bluffing.. I had to do what The Secretary told me to do.

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Re:Why Kim Jong-Un would not be irrational to use a nuclear ... by 8ytecoder on Friday September 08, 2017 @01:51PM (#15202423)

Same Castro in 2010: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703865004575649...

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