In that last article, you also see that "perfect recession timing" (looking backwards instead of to the future) actually doesn't have that much improvement over buy and hold. So for me, it doesn't seem like the return is worth the effort, so I just buy and hold.
http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/02/uetrend/
And it is also possible to have a slightly better ROI than buy and hold, even if you don't have the timing of future recession dates. See http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/01/gtt/
In that last article, you also see that "perfect recession timing" (looking backwards instead of to the future) actually doesn't have that much improvement over buy and hold. So for me, it doesn't seem like the return is worth the effort, so I just buy and hold.