Re:Houston is experiencing its third ‘500-year’ flood in 3 y...
by kbenson on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @10:56PM
(#15129407)
> It is of course possible, it was actually a once in 500 year event. I just believe it is much more likely our previous conclusion was faulty.
It seems it could go either way to me, and the way to get a good indication of which is most likely is to look at look at much smaller timeframe models and assess if they are changing over time, and how much. It's entirely possible it's both, but it seems we have a good way of gauging the relative importance of changing climate norms so we should at look at that before discounting it as noise in the bigger problem of poor models in general.
It seems it could go either way to me, and the way to get a good indication of which is most likely is to look at look at much smaller timeframe models and assess if they are changing over time, and how much. It's entirely possible it's both, but it seems we have a good way of gauging the relative importance of changing climate norms so we should at look at that before discounting it as noise in the bigger problem of poor models in general.