Re:Houston is experiencing its third ‘500-year’ flood in 3 y...
by T-hawk on Tuesday August 29, 2017 @05:39PM
(#15127816)
> it's actually quite likely that at least one of them could have a pretty high probability of experiencing one in 500 chance of something each year.
This is the key point here, and it's called the fallacy of multiple endpoints. If there are 500 observable cities, then somewhere among them should occur a "500-year event" every year. It's just that nobody ever notices the big bulk of the population that hasn't yet had any 500-year event in its recorded history.
This is the key point here, and it's called the fallacy of multiple endpoints. If there are 500 observable cities, then somewhere among them should occur a "500-year event" every year. It's just that nobody ever notices the big bulk of the population that hasn't yet had any 500-year event in its recorded history.