As nutty as they seem neither NK nor USA are going to attempt a first-strike. For NK, it would mean a swift, permanent end to the regime. For the USA, it would mean an unacceptable level of causalities (not to mention a global economic disaster).
There is dissent in NK, it will eventually take out dear leader. This is the most desirable end-game for NK.
If, somehow, it ended up hitting Japan it certainly would have been a big scary incident but few causalities if any.
Best case: NK government falls on its own. Least casualties.
Worst case: NK attacks (i.e. the missile had hit) or gets attacked, massive casualties on all sides.
How does your appeal to emotion change any of that?
Its not pretty, but can you say you believe given another 10 years unchecked development the likelihood of strike and deaths is lower?
If he really valued the lives of his citizens, you would probably expect a different means of governing. I don't think you can treat this person as a rational individual when negotiating...
This is why North Korea is dead set on developing nuclear bombs. As long as the US remains a threat North Korea has no other choice, it's not like getting rid of their WMD's would prevent the US from attacking.
No, but China would, and even North Korea's conventional threat against South Korea would.
A non-nuclear PRNK has nothing to fear from the USA, because China loves its North Korean buffer against South Korea, and will not let anything happen to it. Wouldn't China love a non-nuclear PRNK even more? It would still be a buffer and could still cause massive damage to Seoul and South Korea's industry and shipping, but without the region-destabilizing nuclear threat to Japan, Guam, CONUS, etc.
If KJU wanted to be a responsible leader, it seems to me that he would drop his nuclear and icbm programs, come up with a narrative for why that was necessary (or simply lie to his people and launch short-range rockets all the time to maintain a facade of continued progress), accept international aid and modernization, and claim credit for it to his people. If the international community does things he doesn't like, he can still threaten to attack South Korea, which would be devastating. The nuclear threat is just one step too far, and if KJU isn't careful, he's going to find that out. Trump isn't going to attack offensively (at least not without Chinese and South Korean green lights), not only because the counterattack would be a disaster for U.S. allies and perhaps the U.S. itself, but because China would then get involved in some capacity on North Korea's side.
KJU doesn't appear to want to be a responsible or rational leader, nor does he want to help his people. It seems like he wants the nuclear threat to get sanctions lifted so he can be even more of a jackass to his subjects and prop up his own regime with more comfort and power. He's already living well; if he's not happy with the status quo and wants more power and lifted sanctions to benefit himself and not his citizens, that makes me worry about his rationality vastly more than I worry about Trump's, and I do worry about Trump's sometimes.
NK nuclear program worked as a blackmail tool - they were getting aid in exchange for concessions like freezing plutonium-related facilities, though not terminating them.
Besides that, Gaddafi was a "responsible" leader and terminated his nuclear program. Dictators are paranoid, don't you think Kim Jong-un learned his lesson?
Both these things exist now, and the war hawks are still pressing for war.
>A non-nuclear PRNK has nothing to fear from the USA, because China loves its North Korean buffer against South Korea, and will not let anything happen to it.
They do have everything to fear of China, and still could be a bargaining chip in some future deal between China and the US. They tried the whole "rely on a superpower" thing before, the USSR attempted to remove Kim Il-sung from power then the eventual collapse devastated the economy. The Juche philosophy exists for a reason.
>If KJU wanted to be a responsible leader, it seems to me that he would drop his nuclear and icbm programs, come up with a narrative for why that was necessary (or simply lie to his people and launch short-range rockets all the time to maintain a facade of continued progress), accept international aid and modernization,
Like they tried in the nineties and 00's, only to have the US reneg on the deals? [1] Or like they have constantly said they would be willing to do over the past several months? [2] That bridge is ablaze if not already burnt.
>KJU doesn't appear to want to be a responsible or rational leader, nor does he want to help his people
His main priority is maintaining power, this is hardly unique. Betterment of his citizens is a secondary goal, the Songun ideology isn't really a secret.
>It seems like he wants the nuclear threat to get sanctions lifted so he can be even more of a jackass to his subjects and prop up his own regime with more comfort and power.
He wants to remove the external threats so he only has to worry about the internal ones. Things wouldn't improve for his citizens immediately, but continuing the sanctions or war won't improve their situation either.
[1)http://www.38north.org/2017/08/lsigal082217/
[2]https://theintercept.com/2017/08/25/north-korea-keeps-saying...