Usain Bolt's average speed was about 23 miles per hour[0] when he set the world record (9.58 sec/100m). Nearly everyone can "run" 2.3 mph for a quarter-lap; that's not even a brisk walking pace.

The 10x programmer idea also applies to adults working as programmers. If you were to limit the runners to an analogous population (runners, I guess, or even healthy adults), I'd definitely take that bet.

[0] His peak speed was a bit faster (~27 mph), but the point stands...