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Re:How big oil will die by maxsilver on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @07:54PM (#14974920)
Electric cars can have ICE's strapped onto them, and it works really well. The Chevy Volt, for instance, is perfectly designed to handle the situation you described. It gives you 52ish miles of all electric range, so you can commute and grab groceries and do all of your normal driving on pure electricity. And for various road trips, it still gets 40-ish MPG for hundreds of miles without any electricity needed.

It also needs zero fancy charging infrastructure. Have a regular US household power outlet anywhere in your garage or home exterior? Then you have everything you need to charge it up every night.

We could easily eliminate 50+% of US personal vehicle emissions, simply by putting 2013-era PHEV technology into every single car /SUV / truck, and getting people to plug them into regular 120V US household outlets overnight. Even rural folks would benefit greatly from getting 1 or 2 free "electricity gallons" every night.

Pure EV's are obviously ideal, and way cooler. But even just a little bit of electricity in a PHEV goes a long way to reducing/eliminating emissions.

Re:How big oil will die by briantakita on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:10PM (#14975033)
> It also needs zero fancy charging infrastructure. Have a regular US household power outlet anywhere in your garage or home exterior? Then you have everything you need to charge it up every night.

There will be significant additional load on the Electric grid. This will require the electric grid to be overhauled around the country. Couple this with "smart grid" mandates & you have yet another channel for government control via bureaucracy & regulation. Denizens of cities tend to be more numb to government control & people in more sparsely populated areas tend to be more willing to demand/defend freedom & liberty.

There are many new properties that need to add utility poles. Don't forget power loss over distance.

The big advantage of Gas is you can transport/store the product without the product losing energy.

> We could easily eliminate 50+% of US personal vehicle emissions, simply by putting 2013-era PHEV technology into every single car /SUV / truck, and getting people to plug them into regular 120V US household outlets overnight. Even rural folks would benefit greatly from getting 1 or 2 free "electricity gallons" every night.

Living in Tennessee, it's difficult to ignore the power lines everywhere in otherwise abundant greenery. Electric cars will only add more power lines & infrastructure.

Re:How big oil will die by maxsilver on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:22PM (#14975106)
> There will be significant additional load on the Electric grid. This will require the electric grid to be overhauled around the country.

Two electric cars in a household, both charging simultaneously, uses less electricity combined than just one standard clothes dryer or one central air conditioner -- the kind of appliances everyone already has in their home and runs regularly.

It's not nothing of course. And some parts of the grid will need capacity improvements. But we're only talking about 900 to 1400 watts per car here, and most of that only happening at night when there's lots of spare capacity already. I don't see any factual reasons this would crush the power grid -- cars simply don't use enough electricity to cause a major problem.

Re:How big oil will die by maxerickson on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:34PM (#14975184)
1400 watts for a plug in hybrid or someone that doesn't drive longer distances everyday.

For full electric with higher mileage 5,000-10,000 watts would be a lot more likely (Tesla sells a 17 KW charger).

Re:How big oil will die by maxsilver on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:46PM (#14975253)
> For full electric with higher mileage 5000-10,000 kilowatts would be a lot more likely.

I don't think so. Sure, it's technically possible to use that much power, but most people aren't going to empty their Tesla battery every single day, for the same reason most people don't buy a whole tank of gasoline every single day.

You can charge a Tesla on a 1.4kw US household outlet, just like every other car. It will still give you 50+ miles a night. Bump that to just a 3.3kW charger and you'll be pulling over 100 miles of charge nightly. 3.3kW is more than enough to cover 92% of all commuters nationwide, according to USDOT.

Superchargers are awesome and all, and are great for roadtrips, but 99% of people will have no need to pull 17kW down in their home. That's an insane amount of power.

Re:How big oil will die by monodeldiablo on Thursday August 10, 2017 @04:50AM (#14977751)
Speaking as someone who's worked in renewables and utilities, I can tell you that the exact opposite is true. Having a reliable load at night would flatten out the demand curve for electricity, making the grid significantly easier and cheaper to manage.

Those utility poles and power lines you worry about are there to handle peak load, which won't be impacted at all by EVs, which will charge predominantly at night.

A solid mix of renewables -- hydro or geo for base load, with solar for peak load and wind to top off intermittent and nighttime demand -- is most efficient when the demand is relatively stable. No more need to shunt perfectly good electricity into the ground just because it's night.

And boy oh boy does it make the grid economics of distributed solar better. If most of your home's solar production capacity is being soaked up by your car, the grid and utility doesn't need to support big buy/sell cycles on sunny days. Electric cars would stabilize pricing and are probably the only way SmartGrid can realistically work.

Unlike refrigerator compressors or clothes dryers, electric cars have a smooth rate of draw and, as small industries pop up to parasitize the big battery in your EV, we'll increasingly see EVs as a home's store of electricity. This will be good for the system in the same way that per-home cisterns dramatically reduce demand on the water systems here in Southern Europe.

Re:How big oil will die by gregable on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:39PM (#14975215)
The grid can manage electric cars. They can actually make the grid more stable since it's not difficult to ask the cars to slow their charging at certain times. You don't even have to build this into the grid layer: just take these network connected vehicles and tell them to stop charging for 5 minutes out of the hour.

You can even go so far as to have the cars soak up the capacity. If you have a 2kW capacity circuit in the house, you can have the car drop it's draw as the fridge compressor clicks in.

Re:How big oil will die by trhway on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:24PM (#14975113)
while i think you're incorrect on many points, i'll address one for example:

>The big advantage of Gas is you can transport the product without the product losing energy.

the cost of transportation and infrastructure like for example gas loading terminals and gas stations is higher for gas than electricity. That is the "loss of energy".

Re:How big oil will die by zeotroph on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:47PM (#14975260)
Indeed, even when using fossil fuel as the energy source for both a gas-powered and an electric car, the well to wheel efficiency is 14-33% vs 42%, respectivly.

Source (2013): http://www.asahi-net.or.jp/~pu4i-aok/cooldata2/hybridcar/hyb... (it also claims a 42% efficiency for diesels on highways)

Re:How big oil will die by mschaef on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:33PM (#14975173)
> There will be significant additional load on the Electric grid.

True, but people will be charging their cars most often when they're asleep, so it's less of an impact on peak load. It may be more of a base load/duty cycle impact.

However, even then, this type of load is also easily interruptible and automatically controlled by modern hardware. This makes it more serviceable with renewable power, more easy to make price-sensitive, and more able to provide demand response. (Potentially to the extent of being able to put power back into the grid and act as a negative load.)

(That said, the original idea of a household outlet is a stretch... I understand charging a Tesla at 120V/15A to be glacially slow.)

Re:How big oil will die by sooheon on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:35PM (#14975195)
> The big advantage of Gas is you can transport/store the product without the product losing energy.

So gas tankers and carriers run on unicorn farts now? ;)

> Living in Tennessee, it's difficult to ignore the power lines everywhere in otherwise abundant greenery. Electric cars will only add more power lines & infrastructure.

Continue at the current rate of emissions and pollution, and the only greenery left in Tennessee or anywhere else will be brownish algae.

Re:How big oil will die by com2kid on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:33PM (#14975180)
> Have a regular US household power outlet anywhere in your garage or home exterior?

The irony here is that people living in cities, who would most benefit from the advantages of EVs, are also more likely to live in Condos or Apartments, many of which do not have outlets in their garage.

I had to rule out an EV purchase for just that reason.

Re:How big oil will die by monodeldiablo on Thursday August 10, 2017 @04:33AM (#14977615)
The people who live in cities -- as the article points out -- will not need to own a vehicle. Living in a city will become even more attractive as it will be far cheaper to simply hail a fleet vehicle than to own your own car. When this shift happens, watch the urbanization rate across the developed world shoot up, as the price of suburban/rural living will finally begin to reflect its true societal cost.

Suburban and rural dwellers will still need their own car, but even then it makes more sense to have a PHEV than an ICE. And pure EVs with range extenders (parallel diesel/gas generators) make yet more sense, if the aesthetics and modularity problems can be solved. Yes, these solutions are more costly, but them's the brakes. Nobody has a right to live -- cheaply -- far from shared infrastructure.

Re:How big oil will die by jeffdavis on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @10:27PM (#14975808)
That will change quickly, I think. The cost/benefit of doing so is quite good.

Even for small-time landlords, their tenants will ask "where do I charge my EV" before they sign the lease.

Re:How big oil will die by pilom on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:00PM (#14974960)
I agree wholeheartedly with you and my next vehicle will be a plug in hybrid. That said, that isn't what the author is saying. He's saying that all private cars will go away because it will be so much cheaper to just call a self driving electric and I don't see it happening because people will never call a self driving car to the trailhead of a 14'er. It is just so much more convenient to have your own (PHEV).
Re:How big oil will die by leereeves on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:09PM (#14975025)
> people will never call a self driving car to the trailhead of a 14'er.

As a long distance backpacker I'd love to be able to get a ride to and from the trail at a reasonable price.

Of course, we'd also need better cell coverage.

Re:How big oil will die by prawn on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:43PM (#14975238)
Same. Self-driving cars/vans would be brilliant for trailhead use. In 2016, hiking Trans Zion, we paid US$120+tip to get two of us from our car to a starting point about 60-90 minutes away. Earlier this year, my brother and I hitched three separate times to save 10 hours of road walking in a storm to get back to our car after Buckskin Gulch. We were lucky with the timing of each ride.

I've been deterred from hiking the Grand Canyon rim to rim by needing to either hike all the way back, or have two cars and add a 5-hour drive. Salt Creek in Canyonlands is another where a shuttle is a help, or crossing from The Maze over the river to The Needles (avoiding many hours of driving back).

Being able to call a self-driving car to affordably make these trips would be great.

Re:How big oil will die by gregable on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:35PM (#14975191)
The cell coverage isn't even required. If there is no driver waiting for me, I could affordably schedule the car in advance to wait at the trailhead until I arrive: all day if need be. It'd be no more expensive than having rented the car for the day.
Re:How big oil will die by billrobertson42 on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:39PM (#14975218)
If you had a self-driving car, you could let it take you to the beginning of the hike, and then let it drive itself to the end of the hike where you could take it home.
Re:How big oil will die by litany on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @09:44PM (#14975584)
As an outdoorsman this is exactly what I am excited about with self driving cars. It has the possibility of making going even deeper into the wilderness more practical. A self driving car can take you to the trail head, go charge, and then go wait for you. With 300 miles of range you can go most anywhere.
Re:How big oil will die by mrep on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:35PM (#14975187)
Or a massive satellite internet constellation that provides internet access everywhere [1].

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_satellite_constellation

Re:How big oil will die by andy_ppp on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:19PM (#14975078)
Almost everywhere seems to have better cell coverage than the worlds richest country. Maybe electric Uber will mean this needs to be fixed.
Re:How big oil will die by nine_k on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:31PM (#14975162)
If by "almost everywhere" you mean Europe or Japan, please compare population density. If most of the US had the population density of Northern Europe, or US northeast, or Silicon Valley, it would have similar almost-omnipresent coverage.

US West is more like Siberia, or Canada 100 miles north from the border. There are not enough subscribers to economically cover with GSM / LTE, except in cities and along major roads.

Re:How big oil will die by andy_ppp on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:31PM (#14975168)
I'm talking about places like India or even Myanmar. To be fair India has probably a much greater population density than the US so maybe you are correct.
Re:How big oil will die by maxsilver on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:12PM (#14975042)
Right. I don't necessarily disagree with any of that. I'm just trying to fight the notion that EV's "won't help rural folk", or that electric cars are not compatible with rural life.

If anything, rural and exurban folks will have the most to benefit from electric vehicles and PHEVs (even without any charging infrastructure), since they end up driving more miles on average than city residents.

Re:How big oil will die by Analemma_ on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:08PM (#14975015)
> I don't see it happening because people will never call a self driving car to the trailhead of a 14'er. It is just so much more convenient to have your own (PHEV).

Self-driving cars can co-exist with short-term rentals. I live in Seattle and recently sold my car because ReachNow is good enough: it does short-term rentals by the mile, but when I go hiking I can do half/full-day rentals, and it still ends up being a lot cheaper than owning a car. And this is before self-driving and the cost savings of EV enter the equation.

Re:How big oil will die by sooheon on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:30PM (#14975152)
> because people will never call a self driving car to the trailhead of a 14'er.

I disagree with this. Why not? Hell, reserve the car for two weeks and have it sit there at the trail parking lot, if you want the old school experience. Still cheaper (for you, for the environment) than full time owning a car which is unused 90% of the time.

Re:How big oil will die by danans on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:49PM (#14975270)
Not all private cars will go away, but a significant fraction of car use cases will move to self driving services (especially the ones that involve drinking).

For some this will mean their optimum is less car ownership, and for others no car ownership.

The trend will be amplified in areas with limited parking and high costs of living.

Also, you can always rent a car to go to the trailhead, just like you do on vacation.

None of this is dependent on electric or even self driving cars, as it is all already happening today with ride services and ICE cars, but self driving cars shift the economics considerably away from private car ownership.

Re:How big oil will die by bjt on Wednesday August 09, 2017 @08:56PM (#14975319)
Change happens at the margins. For reasons that you and parent comments mentioned, we're not going to go to 100% electric anytime soon. But I think we will see a lot more city dwellers willing to go car-less, and a lot more suburban/rural families willing to go down from multiple cars to just one. That'll still be enough to shake out the less competitive oil companies.