2 for 2 = "amazing track record"? Counting the offer they made to Blockbuster as another.

Besides, foresight is not everything. You can see your impending doom and not be able to do anything about it. Have they successfully done something to anticipate the eventually-fragmented endgame the current environment is fomenting?

Even if they see it happening and anticipate the future landscape... What exactly could they do? Invest in making a roku-like platform agnostic layer?

Oh come on, you're reducing the number of major decisions Netflix has had to make over the past 5 years to 2? You're right that Netflix faces a fragmented endgame, that's why they've invested so much money into original and exclusive content. Disney (as is HBO, currently) will be a formidable content rival, but by the time Disney's service rolls out, Netflix will have a strong brand when it comes to Netflix-only content, nevermind the advantage it has from having industry-leading infrastructure and experienced engineering teams.