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Re:Our Broken Economy, in One Simple Chart by api on Tuesday August 08, 2017 @12:41PM (#14959631)
It would be significantly less of a problem if it weren't for massive inflation in real estate, tuition, and health care. There are other gravity-defying areas but these three are the real killers. Wages are stagnant but the cost of housing, education, and health care can only go up and up and up.

There's a cause and effect connection too. All that wealth at the top increasingly has nowhere to go. Stagnant wages result in what economists call a "demand constrained economy," which basically means nobody has any money to buy anything. This makes it harder to build businesses (no customers!) and therefore makes investments perform worse. Worse performing investments leads money to seek safe havens like... real estate. This causes asset inflation which soaks up yet more middle class wealth and worsens the problem. Repeat cycle. It also inflates bubbles. This is why we've had a serial bubble economy since the late 1990s.

Historically demand constrained economies result in depressions. We've avoided a technical depression through monetary policy (QE, etc.) but at the cost of monstrous asset inflation and bubbles. (My personal opinion is that we have been in a weird kind of stealth depression since roughly 2008, or maybe even since 2001. It's a depression masked by force-pumped asset inflation and bubbles.)

This is in part why you hear some venture capitalists advocating for redistribution methods like universal basic income. VC depends on the ability to build businesses which depends on customers. If there are no customers VC backed companies fail and VC funds under-perform.

Edit: just since this is interesting:

The opposite of a demand constrained economy is a supply constrained economy. This is where you have lots of money in consumers' hands but no capital available for business. This is what we had in the 1970s and it resulted in "stagflation," which is inflation due to consumer demand bidding up constrained supply. Supply side economics such as what the Reagan administration introduced in the 1980s may have been the right answer then. Today we have the opposite problem and probably need something more like FDR's New Deal. Unfortunately we have a generation that grew up in the 70s that is now in power and is fighting the last war. This is the same problem we had in the 70s-- the 30s-40s generation was in power and was fighting the last war.

Re:Our Broken Economy, in One Simple Chart by damon_c on Tuesday August 08, 2017 @12:58PM (#14959810)
Yes.

90% of money being held by a few people whose material needs are already satisfied does not create demand for products and services but mostly inflates stock prices and real estate and other "wealth storage" types of assets.

Money in the hands of the bottom 90% gets spent on things like new cars and shoes and going out to restaurants or getting haircuts. Providing these goods and services is what jobs are made out of.

Re:Our Broken Economy, in One Simple Chart by sokoloff on Tuesday August 08, 2017 @01:07PM (#14959906)
> Wages are stagnant but the cost of housing, education, and health care can only go up and up and up.

Wages are not stagnant.

From the article: The news regarding the American middle class is not all bad. Although the middle class has not kept pace with upper-income households, its median income, adjusted for household size, has risen over the long haul, increasing 34% since 1970. That is not as strong as the 47% increase in income for upper-income households, though it is greater than the 28% increase among lower-income households.

Nominal wages are clearly increasing. The "wages are stagnant" argument is more valid only if you discuss real wages (backing out inflation), but then you can't reasonably (IMO) say "real wages are stagnant, but inflation is happening".

Re:Our Broken Economy, in One Simple Chart by sharemywin on Tuesday August 08, 2017 @01:23PM (#14960103)
n 1970, total health care spending was about $75 billion, or only $356 per person (Figure 1). In less than 40 years these costs have grown to $2.6 trillion, or $8,402 per person. ... By the year 2020, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) projects that health spending will be nearly one-fifth of GDP (19.8).
Re:Our Broken Economy, in One Simple Chart by sharemywin on Tuesday August 08, 2017 @01:18PM (#14960034)
four-year colleges and universities and also two-year community colleges. In 1970, the. average yearly tuition was $358 for public four-year institutions and $1,561 for four-year. private institutions.

The College Board predicts the average annual cost of a four-year college in 2020 will be $46,368, up 38% from current fee

Re:Our Broken Economy, in One Simple Chart by sharemywin on Tuesday August 08, 2017 @01:17PM (#14960023)
median home values: 1970: $17,000. 1980: $47,200. 1990: $79,100. 2000: $119,600.

a lot more than 34%.

Re:Our Broken Economy, in One Simple Chart by CalChris on Tuesday August 08, 2017 @01:31PM (#14960219)
You need to adjust those numbers for inflation [1]. The result for inflating $17,000 from 1970 to 2000 is $75,448.45. So $119,600 is about a 37% increase which is not a lot more than 34%.

[1] http://www.usinflationcalculator.com/

Re:Our Broken Economy, in One Simple Chart by sharemywin on Tuesday August 08, 2017 @01:40PM (#14960320)
here are better numbers: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/uspricemon.pdf

Jan 1970 $23,600(adjusted for inflation 148,993.25)

Jan 2017 $317,400

The other one stopped at 2000.

Re:Our Broken Economy, in One Simple Chart by sharemywin on Tuesday August 08, 2017 @01:42PM (#14960353)
213%
Re:Our Broken Economy, in One Simple Chart by sharemywin on Tuesday August 08, 2017 @01:44PM (#14960375)
75448*1.37 = 103363

I come up with 58% higher.

Re:Our Broken Economy, in One Simple Chart by sokoloff on Tuesday August 08, 2017 @01:28PM (#14960175)
CAGR of median house prices:

1970-1980 - 11%, 1980-1990 - 5.3%, 1990-2000 - 4.2%, 1970-2000 - 6.7%, 1980-2000 - 4.8%

Median household incomes (US census source I found only goes back to 1975): https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/cps/tables/time-ser...

1975 - 11800, 1980 - 17710, 1990 - 29943, 2000 - 41990

CAGRs: 1975-1980 - 8.4%, 1980-1990 - 5.4%, 1990-2000 - 3.4%, 1975-2000 - 5.2%, 1980-2000 - 4.4%

For like period to like period (1980-2000), the tracking error is a cumulative 16% over a 20-year period, or about 0.4% per year.

Re:Our Broken Economy, in One Simple Chart by api on Tuesday August 08, 2017 @01:31PM (#14960226)
Real estate markets are local. This analysis only works if you do it for every local metro region and then aggregate. What you'd find is "jobs or affordable housing, pick one." Metro areas with hot job markets have inflated massively, while metro areas with bad job markets have seen little real estate inflation or even deflation. The end result is that you can't get ahead. Good jobs mean you're just shoveling it all into real estate.

This is actually a well established economic principle known as the "law of rent." I've wondered if maybe the middle class explosion of the mid century was driven by the automobile since it allowed cities to physically expand. This allowed people to temporarily escape the law of rent. But now we've hit the limit of that, so the law of rent has re-asserted itself.

Re:Our Broken Economy, in One Simple Chart by api on Tuesday August 08, 2017 @01:18PM (#14960043)
Of the factors I mentioned housing is the worst. I recently heard someone call real estate the "great Satan" of the economy.
Re:Our Broken Economy, in One Simple Chart by sokoloff on Tuesday August 08, 2017 @01:49PM (#14960449)
Someone made an insightful comment on HN a couple weeks ago: "housing cannot be both affordable and a good investment." ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14857591 ;) )

With interest rates as low as they are currently, housing prices are correspondingly inflated (via increased purchasing power for a given/fixed monthly payment). That's pushing us towards the "good historical investment" side of the pendulum, but if interest rates were to return to the 1980s' double-digit figures, it would swing back towards affordable.